Nafta, rates and prepaid payments will add 11.5 inflation points until May

The

rates for electricity, gas and public transport (trains and buses), together with fuel prices and prepaid installments, will add about 11.5 percentage points to inflation

for the March-May quarter, according to the consulting firm's estimates.

EcoGo

.

Between 18% and 30% of the inflation number for the first five months of the year would be explained by the incidence of these regulated prices, projected the entity led by

Marina Dal Poggetto and Sebastián Menescaldi

.

The price variation would slow down slightly, and by the end of May it would have accumulated 101%.

In that sense, the

correction of regulated prices

would more than double the general level of variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI): 210% in 5 months, with an incidence in percentage points of 19.7 percentage points.

Incidence of rates, fuels and prepaid payments on inflation, according to EcoGo.

The calculations are based on the already known adjustments in electric energy and public transportation, but also estimates of the evolution of gasoline, diesel, prepaid bills and a very important fact that has not yet been revealed:

how much and how the increase in gas will be.

If the Government advances in a recomposition of the rates so that they reflect the real supply costs,

gas would have an increase of 743% accumulated in May compared to December

;

light, 367%;

transportation, 401%;

fuels, 86%;

and prepaid, 174%.

In March alone, general inflation would fall from 15.9% in February to 15.6%, while regulated prices would go from contributing 3.4 percentage points to 4.4 pp, according to the latest update of the projections of EcoGo.

However, as the gas increase was postponed to April, at least 1.5 points of inflation would be postponed until later.

Since 2019, regulated prices grew well below seasonal prices and core inflation.

In this first part of the year, the trend is towards balance, through strong cuts in subsidies.

As revealed by the

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

in its mission during January, the variation during Alberto Fernández's government in prices of clothing, restaurants and hotels, food and non-alcoholic beverages and entertainment was above general inflation. , while the prices of alcohol, tobacco, health, transportation, education, communications, and electricity and gas services were left behind.

S.N.