Knowing the inflation data for February (13.2%), which greatly decompressed the official expectation,
the Government's concern is now focused on the March measurement.
This is a seasonally high month compared to the first two months due to the restart of classes and other activities.
For this reason, officials are putting a magnifying glass on the variable, trying to continue the decline
in a political context in which they need to show good results.
Economists estimate that the variation will be
similar or somewhat higher than that of February.
From the perspective of the ACM consulting firm, directed by economist Javier Alvaredo, the data for the second month of the year was
surprisingly positive compared to what the market expected.
Since the BCRA Expectations Survey (REM), with the last correction, expected an inflation of 14.3%.
"Notwithstanding this, in March
it is expected that the registered slowdown will lose momentum
due to the expected increases in regulated prices, mainly in Education - one of the most backward price segments -, prepaid, rates and fuels" among others.
Precisely due to the pending increase in some regulated prices, the consulting firm LCG
expects an inflation level similar to that of February in March.
However, its analysts do not rule out that if
a new devaluation
occurs (to solve the delay in the official dollar since December) it will probably bring
new pressure on prices.
Although, according to most analysts, we must also expect
a lower pass through of the higher costs of companies to prices due to the recession
and the anchor that the structural changes that the Government may carry out in this months.
At LCG they expect a year-on-year increase in inflation of 240% as of December, with peaks of 380% towards the middle of the year.
With data still preliminary, the consulting firm Eco Go estimates that March inflation would be
13.5% monthly.
"The decrease with respect to our initial projections responds to a lower record in the inflation of seasonal and core products compared to what was expected," said the consulting firm headed by economist Marina Dal Poggetto.
For Lautaro Moschet, economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, the drop in February “is a good symptom of the effects of the monetary policy adopted by the current Government.” “But, we are
still going through very tough months in terms of inflation
. To a large extent due to regulated prices that were still far behind, he explains.
According to the expert, "even knowing that March is a difficult month, because the seasonal factor usually generates pressure on the CPI,
it is possible that the downward trend will continue
. For now, according to the first data from its price survey , the first week of the month showed a lower variation than the first week of February.