Control room at the port of Ras Laffan, one of the world's main gas export points.
KARIM JAAFARE (AFP)
Last year was historic for the US liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry: it was the first year in which it led global exports of this fuel, climbing two positions.
Until then, Qatar and Australia were the countries that were competing for leadership that will be open again in the coming years.
The recent decision by the Joe Biden Administration to paralyze all expansion plans for LNG processing and shipping terminals (which travels by ship in a frozen state) has opened a golden opportunity for the two US contenders in that career.
And the emirate is determined to take advantage of it.
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The US guarantees the EU the supply of gas: “We have more than adequate capacity to cover your needs”
The Qatari Minister of Energy, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, has recently unveiled a multimillion-dollar plan to almost double its export capacity by 2030, at a rate of 13% annually.
Increasing, above all, its exports to Europe and Asia, the two continents most thirsty for LNG.
Increase upon increase, in reality, because - contrary to what the forecasts of the main international organizations say, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), which believe that global gas demand will peak before the end of the decade—the emirate has already announced several plans in the same direction.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has completely changed the pace on the world gas map.
The Old Continent, one of the largest consumers of gas in the world, has ended up embracing LNG as the only possible alternative to the Russian lock.
A market in which it is having to deal with strong competitors on the other side of the world: China, Japan and South Korea, in that order.
The halting of all new terminal projects decreed by the US Administration – the country that is covering most of the new European demand – opens a window of opportunity for Qatar.
The impact of the decision by the US authorities will not be immediate.
In the short term, gas will continue to flow normally and the Deputy Secretary of Energy of that country, Mike Considine, has guaranteed the EU supply in the coming years: “With the current facilities, we have more than adequate capacity,” he noted a few days ago. in statements to this newspaper.
Its geographical position is also enviable, even now with the Red Sea and the Suez Canal disabled, shipping options to Europe and Asia are multiple.
Having your own fleet of LNG tankers also helps.
In the longer term, that move is a golden opportunity for Qatar, which has one of the lowest extraction costs in the world.
“Buyers will not go to suppliers where the Government can stop the [supply] process.
It is very difficult to make long-term plans when you have that,” Al-Kaabi said on Sunday in statements to Bloomberg.
“The world needs more gas and more players [suppliers] in the market.
“We have said, consistently, that we need a lot of LNG.”
His words suggest an opportunity and also a need: for the emirate, this fuel is key both in its export balance and in the income of its treasury.
Also the element that has allowed it to become one of the countries with the highest per capita income on the planet.
If the sector's forecasts are met, Qatar will control close to a quarter of the world LNG market by 2030, consolidating the wealth of its less than three million inhabitants and increasing its regional and global influence despite multiple accusations of its serious shortcomings in matter of human rights.
Since the outbreak of the energy crisis, the state energy company (Qatar Energy) has signed long-term supply agreements with the Italian Eni, the French TotalEnergies and the Anglo-Dutch Shell, as well as with the Chinese Sinopec.
In the latter case, many years in the future: 27. However, to meet these contracts and all those previously sealed, only a small part of the total is necessary: around half of the planned increase in export capacity is still waiting for buyer, according to BloombergNEF data.
That metric, that of the signing of fixed supply agreements, also suggests a turn of events: after two consecutive years of American dominance, in the last quarter of 2023 the emirate sealed more contracts than any other LNG producer.
With these achievements, it seems only a matter of time before it recovers the world scepter of exports.
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