The recovery is long overdue.
According to the latest economic report from INSEE, after a sluggish last quarter of 2023, from January to March, economic activity, once again, would not progress one iota in France.
We would have to wait until the second quarter to record a jump of 0.3% in gross domestic product (GDP), thanks to the recovery in purchasing power.
Under these conditions, the government's forecast of growth of 1% in 2024, just revised, already seems optimistic.
The growth carryover at mid-year, that is to say the annual change in the event of stagnation of activity in the second half of the year, would in fact be modest, at +0.5%.
To reach the 1% promised by Bercy, activity should rebound very significantly by 0.7% in the third and fourth quarters.
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If growth reaches 1
% for the whole year, the most likely thing is that there will have been favorable hazards in the first half, such as a drop in savings which would support consumption
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