The lowering of rates that the Central Bank faced this Tuesday surprised its savers who since the end of the year
have not found an instrument to beat inflation,
which although it began to decelerate, still remains the financial variable that has risen the most so far this year. year and erodes everyone's pockets.
Banks went from remunerating fixed terms at
110% annually, 9.1% monthly,
regulated by the Central Bank, to offering a return that ranges between 76% and 70% annually, that is, a profit of between
6.3 % and 5.8%
per month, well
below the 13% inflation
that was reported this Tuesday for February.
At the same time, the Central Excluded mutual investment funds from the "pass window", the reference letter of the economy, so money market funds, the most sought after by Argentines this year,
lost this opportunity to investment
and they are going to see the abrupt drop in the fixed term rate strongly.
To cite an example, Banco Galicia reduced the annual rate of its Fima Premium Fund, the money market fund that allows you to redeem 24/7 in the entity's app, to 67.9% per year, from the 87% it offered weeks ago.
Thus, the monthly yield of the pesos in this account
barely reaches 5.8%.
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The President defined as "unbelievable" the fact that "we are receiving deposits in dollars from the financial system at a zero rate."
Small savers are wondering if with these prices it is time to dollarize and take advantage of the drop in rates to hedge against a possible jump in the exchange rate or bet on the carry trade and the profit that instruments tied to inflation can offer this year.
"An investor has to consider three things," said Diego Martínez Burzaco, country manager of the Inviu investment app: "First, what is the objective in which he wants to invest pesos or any other currency. Second, define
what type of coverage
"Want, if it is coverage against inflation, coverage against the dollar. And then define your investment horizon,
what is the term in which one is willing to invest
."
"If the objective is to cover short-term monetary surpluses from inflation,
there is no instrument that generates that expectation.
Perhaps the only thing that can be done is a common investment fund that invests in debt in pesos of companies, which adjust by value. This is mainly concentrated in the funds called themes 1. And there it will have the best possible profitability today with the current rate structure, but it does not guarantee that it will be above inflation," added Martínez Burzaco.
Along these same lines, Juan Manuel Franco, stated: "Investments such as
money market
and fixed term, without risks, will imply a greater fall in the real stock of investment in pesos. Thus, we believe that for conservative profiles
UVA fixed terms can be an attractive alternative,
as well as directly the
dollarization of portfolios
at a level of free dollar that we consider appropriate to do so"
"Meanwhile, riskier profiles that are committed to economic normalization in the medium term can see value both in Global bonds in US$ and in local
equity
, with us in the latter case being more biased towards the
energy
sector . That said, we must highlight that episodes of political or social tension could cause short-term volatility in these higher risk assets,” Franco added.
Finally, Alain Fainsod, Commercial Director of the Cocos Capital trading desk, pointed out: "Although the government is taking good steps in accordance with its objective, the challenge of accumulating dollars for the entire year remains great considering the normalization of imports and that in the second half of the year the flow of exports usually reverses".
"Combining this decrease in incentives to save in pesos, the challenge of accumulating dollars and the rapid increase in the cost of all assets denominated in ARS, we tend to offer, for those investors who can, dollarized options, either with negotiable obligations or government bonds, depending the risk they want to take," concluded Fainsod.