"If I had US$15 billion, today I would open the stocks,"
said President
Javier Milei,
announcing on the radio that he was negotiating new disbursements from the Monetary Fund and credits from private investment funds and other countries.
The US$ 15,000 million appear as a magical figure for the Government already at the time of Luis Caputo
's appointment
as minister, when he was supposed to come to office with that amount under his arm.
The presidential announcement, the day after the Senate rejected the DNU that deregulates economic activity, marks the beginning of a new stage after 10 days of management characterized by
positive results in financial matters, but negative results in terms of economic activity and employment.
When could they cross paths?
During the week the issue became relevant due to Caputo's decision to open the importation of some foods to control prices in the domestic market.
Opening imports means using dollars and the Government does not have any left over even though the Central Bank
has purchased US$10 billion
.
Net reserves remain negative and restrictions on the payment of imports generate a significant foreign currency debt.
"There are still almost
US$40 billion
of commercial debt after the placement of the Bopreal bond," according to a report by economist Carlos Pérez.
Milei framed the additional search for dollars in the need to lift the stocks to move towards a currency competition scheme that in his vision could occur in the
middle of the year
.
To the political setback of the
rejection of the DNU
in the Senate, the response is the announcement of moving towards greater dollarization of the economy.
And the dollar doesn't react?
The exchange rate calm contrasts with the political effervescence and the divergence with the IMF, virtual lender of last resort, which asks it for political sustainability and to accumulate US$10 billion in reserves by the end of the year.
One of the faces of the current financial market is the lack of pesos compared to the amount of dollars that are offered.
According to the latest Abeceb report "today the relationship between M3 (broad money indicator) and GDP is at historic lows and loanable funds are mostly absorbed by the public sector. The purchase of reserves is a genuine way to remonetize the economy".
Fewer pesos in circulation and a
"blackening"
of the retail payment system advancing with intensity.
While Caputo discusses with the supermarkets to modify the promotion system (2X1; 50% discount on the second unit, etc.), the discounts of 5% for transfer or 10% for cash payment or 21% without receipt on materials for construction brings to light the new stage of consumption.
The companies that at the end of the year had
accumulated stocks
and valued them at the highest price they considered possible, now began to dismantle them and the
discounts go hand in hand with a certain evasion.
The recession due to falling sales is pronounced and price increases subside.
In the first week of March, as measured by EcoGo,
retail prices rose 3.1%,
a significant decrease compared to the same period of the previous month, projecting 13.5% as an increase in the cost of living and with striking data.
This month, for the first time in a long time, there could be a
decrease in wholesale prices
as a result of the dismantling of stocks due to the sharp drop in sales.
To the decantation of the political dispute over the future of the deregulatory DNU, we must add the definition of the Government's exchange rate scheme in the coming weeks.
The minister insists that a jump in the dollar
should not be expected ,
but the 2% monthly increase for the official appears insufficient to convince a part of the market that considers that the $851 from the wholesaler is insufficient to encourage the rapid liquidation of the corn and soybean exports.
Meanwhile, Caputo's move to lower the economic reference rate from 100% to 80% and promote a drop in the rate for fixed-term deposits leaves savers with fewer alternatives to protect themselves from inflation and a powerful doubt is if they will manage to beat the dollar in the coming weeks.