On video: Nir Kipnis in an opinion column on the cancellation of the establishment of the front emergency room on Sderot in Warah/Still photo: Reuven Castro, Reuters and Flash 90
The main indices in the US stock exchanges, such as the Nasdaq and the S&P500 indices, rose during last February by 6.11% and 5.17%, respectively.
And the main indices in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, such as the Tel Aviv 35 and Tel Aviv 90 indices, also jumped during the same period and rose by 6.35% and 7.01%, respectively.
The increases in the stock markets had a positive effect on the medium-term savings of all of us, a significant part of which is invested in stocks in Israel and abroad, and led the large training funds examined by Walla! Money (see table) in the general route to an average return of 2.01% during the month of last February
. The training program that produced the highest return at the end of last February is that of the insurance company 'Kalal', which jumped from the bottom of the table in which it was positioned the previous month as a unit with a negative return, straight to the top with a yield of 2.21%.
The yield of the fund of Kalal is about 0.43% higher than The training of the Meitav investment house, which marks the bottom of the table with a return of 1.78% for the same period.
The other 8 funds entered in the middle, with the Phoenix in the tail with 2.16%, Moore with 2.14%, Analyst with 2.11%, Menorah with 2.08%, Migdal with 2% , Harel with 1.94%, Yelin Lapidot with 1.92% and Altshuler Shacham slightly above Meitav with 1.79%.
The training funds in February/screenshot, Walla system!
Nir Ovadia, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Manager at Clal Insurance and Finance, explained to Walla! Money, that "the latest January and February data testified to a strong global economy, which was mainly supported by the reports of the companies traded in the American S&P and Nasdaq indexes, whose results, as well as Their forward forecasts beat the estimates and expectations and brought optimism to the markets.
"The market's assessment at that time of the moderation of inflation and, consequently, the expectations of the interest rate cut by the Fed, also contributed to the positive atmosphere in the markets and strengthened the high probability of the 'soft landing' narrative, compared to the estimates of entry into recession that were at the beginning this year
"The shares of the chip companies traded on Wall Street stood out in particular with sharp increases, and Nvidia's stock, for example, stood out with an increase of about 76% from the beginning of the year to the end of February. The shares of the American technology giants also continued to stand out in increases, and the Meta company, for example, rose by about 25%.
"The rest of the stock markets abroad also reacted with price increases, with the Japanese Nikkei index rising from the beginning of the year to the end of February by approximately 19.26% in local currency terms. And the Israeli stock market also reacted with increases despite the war and uncertainties, and especially the positive stocks stood out Insurance companies, banks and residential real estate, with an increase of approximately 10.5% in the Tel Aviv Insurance and Finance Index, approximately 11.4% in the Tel Aviv Construction Index, and approximately 6.9% in the Tel Aviv Banks Index 5.
"The bond indices performed They also did well during last February, both abroad and in Israel, when the corporate bond indices abroad were slightly more positive than the government bonds.
"Kelal was well positioned for the behavior experienced in the markets, with a relatively high proportion of shares, while within it we were biased towards the US and technology.
In the technology sector, we held a large proportion of chip shares such as 'Nvidia' and 'Taiwan Semiconductor', and this contributed to us in February alongside holding shares of leading companies in the AI value chain.
"I should point out that in terms of a long-term strategy, Kelal positioned herself in a place where she could enjoy the field of AI, when these days we already moderated the holdings after the significant increases we experienced in it, and this also helped our portfolio during the period.
"In addition, we were in Uber on the Japanese market for a period of time Its length, and the increases we experienced in it, along with our holdings in Israel, including the banks, also contributed during February.
"In the last two months, we have also completed a number of transactions that we worked on during 2023 in the non-tradable part, and we continue to look for opportunities with leading companies and entities."
Ovadia refers, among other things, to the establishment of 300 million NIS by Clal as part of the establishment of a partnership with the Mediterranean Towers sheltered housing network for the construction of sheltered housing and the purchase of existing sheltered housing, and an investment of approximately 300 million additional shekels in the energy arm of Mevat Shamir.
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Ovadia
"Since the beginning of March, the global markets have performed less well and with them the local market as well, when the gap between them continued to widen"/ Sivan Faraj
The wave of increases experienced since the beginning of the year, however, is not a sign of things to come.
Ovadia: "It should be noted that despite the recent increases in the local stock market, the uncertainty that surrounds it, mainly due to the war, is evident in the lag of the local indices compared to the global stock index.
"The local market was filled with a feeling of euphoria in light of the weak impact that the downgrading of Israel's credit rating had and the strengthening The shekel against the dollar last February, alongside market estimates that the war in the north will not break out anytime soon.
"From the beginning of March, however, the global markets performed less well, and with them the local market as well, when the gap between the latter and the former continued to widen. In this context, it should be noted that this is a natural process in which the market takes some air after the strong and rapid increases it experienced at the end of February from the beginning of the year
"The same 'air' is expressed, among other things, in the realization of profits on shares such as Nvidia, which as mentioned jumped by about 76% in the last two months alone, and led to strong declines in the shares
.
In addition, the economic data arriving at this time are beginning to show a slight slowdown, along with the stickiness of inflation, raising concerns about delaying the date of the interest rate cut and perhaps even leaving it unchanged.
"The economic data, however, are not yet completely closed, and the global economy is still at a very sensitive stage, with global geopolitical tensions continuing in the background alongside the beginning of market preparations for the US elections.
So we are in an environment defined by the markets as 'very nervous', and despite this the market has performed well since the beginning of the year, so it is only natural that we will manage risks in light of the high increases we have experienced.
"Looking ahead, it is evident that the scenario of a recession is getting smaller and smaller, certainly into the second half of 2024, and the question that remains is whether the direction will be a slowdown in growth or stabilization. The data that will arrive will significantly determine the behavior of the Fed, when the expectation is that this month (March) there will be no decreases interest, and the question is whether they will happen in May or June, in the shadow, as mentioned, of the US elections."
And what does Ovadia say about the situation in Israel? "It is difficult to make a forecast for the local market, which is still in an environment of uncertainty in the shadow of the development of an extremism event on the northern border of the country, when It is possible that if a deal is closed on this front, it will help the Israeli stock market and its momentum.
"Activity in the local market still requires caution, and for us it is expressed in the allocation to companies whose influence from the situation in Israel is less noticeable. However, we believe in the Israeli market, and do not reduce the threshold of funds invested in Israel.
"We do try to take advantage of opportunities in sectors that are currently trading at attractive prices such as the banks, in the long view Range is a very attractive investment, and we hope, along with the entire Israeli people, that at some point, and we hope soon, Israel will reach its goals and end the war."
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