On video: China: at least 118 dead and hundreds injured in an earthquake/Reuters
A second earthquake this month reminds us of what we prefer to suppress - in Israel a large earthquake occurs every hundred years, the last time was in 1927.
A large and strong earthquake that will occur in Israel is only a matter of time - when the question is mainly when and how strong it will be.
Today's earthquake in the north and Sharon with a magnitude of 3.4 came only ten days after an earthquake with a magnitude of 3.8 hit Tiberias and other settlements in the north of the country.
Past experience shows that many times major events in this field were preceded by a series of smaller foreshocks.
An average strong earthquake will have catastrophic results in Israel.
More than 7,000 people will die and hundreds of thousands will be left homeless.
Thus, according to a reference scenario prepared a long time ago.
According to the experts, the question of a large and strong earthquake occurring in Israel is only a matter of time - when the question is mainly when and how strong the earthquake will be.
Israel is prone to a major earthquake every century.
The last major earthquake occurred 97 years ago.
Earthquake in Turkey, one year ago/Reuters
The scenario predicts heavy damage to 29,000 buildings and light to moderate damage to another 290,000 buildings.
The earthquake may bring about 500,000 displaced people immediately after the earthquake, the number expected to at least about 170,000 after some of the displaced people can return to their homes with the approval of engineers.
This is according to a publication by the Institute for National Security Studies from 2022.
It is estimated that the cost of damages in Israel according to the horror scenario will reach approximately NIS 150 billion, but many believe that this is an underestimate.
The researchers noted that this assessment does not include the damages to the national infrastructures such as electricity, fuel, gas, water and sewage, communication systems, public buildings including hospitals and schools as well as land, air and sea transportation systems as well as various critical strategic systems.
Last January, the State Comptroller stated that the five years since the previous report had not been used to improve earthquake preparedness.
According to the auditor's report, the TMA 38 program did not achieve its goal 18 years after it began: to strengthen residential buildings against earthquakes. TMA 38 was approved for only 6% of the residential buildings that require strengthening in Israel, as of the end of 2021 (4,755 out of 80,000 ).
In practice, only 2,852 buildings were reinforced - 3.5% of the buildings requiring reinforcement.
According to the auditor, 60% of the hospitals are not earthquake resistant or their level of resistance is unknown (28 hospitals, out of 38) as of 2022.
The number of educational institutions where the strengthening works have been completed, or were in the stages of implementation, is 87 - about 5% of the 1,600 educational institutions.
Of the NIS 186 million allocated to protect buildings and strengthen them against earthquakes, only NIS 7 million (4%) was used.
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Earthquake in Morocco, last September/Reuters
The auditor found that the Interministerial Steering Committee for Earthquake Preparedness has only three permanent employees, and that the committee has no legal authority to oblige the government ministries and other relevant bodies to act in accordance with its directives and the government's decisions on earthquake preparedness.
The audit also revealed that the extent of private and public insurance coverage for economic damages following natural disasters in Israel is 44% - this rate is relatively low compared to advanced countries with a similar extent of insurance coverage (77% in New Zealand, 75% in Great Britain, 73% in Belgium, 71% in Switzerland, 67% in France).
So are the recent tremors indicative of an imminent major earthquake?
Many small earthquakes can indicate an approaching large earthquake, as evidenced by many cases in the last century, according to which small earthquakes were measured before a significant earthquake arrived.
At the same time, there is no certainty or even probability that small tremors will lead to a big event, and they can also end in nothing.
But the statistics show that sooner or later it will arrive in our region, even if not this time.
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