Luis Caputo
was categorical before a select group of businessmen who complained to him about the backwardness of the dollar and the high weight of taxes on the prices of many mass consumption products.
The Minister of Economy told them:
"Don't be anxious, but we are not going to devalue. We have to stabilize, then we will grow and that will be the time to lower taxes
. "
It marked very different times from those intended by the countryside and the industry that, although they live different realities in terms of activity, are
at the forefront of demands regarding an improvement in the exchange rate and reduction of tax burdens
.
The minister insists that he will not devalue upon entering a stage that, like many of his predecessors, could be characterized as falling in
love with the virtues of the fixed and calm exchange rate
to help curb prices, especially of food and the basket. familiar.
The Government aims for
April inflation to be less than 10%
and for that the dollar standing still, or rising to 2%, is functional and essential to calm expectations.
And the minister suggests that he feels comfortable with a dollar of $900 (the wholesaler is at $855).
In the Ministry they assure that Domingo Cavallo's convertibility dollar today would be at $650, so they feel they have arguments to defend the current value on the way to formalizing the bimonetary regime at some point.
For producers and exporters of grains and oils, the absence of an exchange rate jump is a cause for concern, although in the last week they had a slight improvement in the international prices of corn and soybeans after the sharp fall of the last year.
The Government highlights that the Central Bank was able to buy US$ 10,000 million and that
the gap between the official dollar and the cash settlement is at 27%
, the lowest level in a long time.
But nothing is free or forever.
It is true that the Central Bank was able to buy
US$ 10,000 million
and also that the debt with importers reaches US$ 30,000 million in a context in which the stocks continue to restrict operations and the "blend" dollar (80% official and 20% cash with liquidation) maintains the supply of free dollars, but limits Central purchases.
The elimination of the "blend" is a claim by the Monetary Fund inscribed in the commitment assumed by the Government that by the end of the year it must have accumulated US$ 10,000 million in reserves;
Today net reserves remain negative in the order of US$ 4,000 million.
Meeting this goal is difficult and much will depend on the liquidation of
soybean exports within a month and a half
.
That is why it is understood that
President Javier Milei
has said that if he had an additional US$15,000 million he could lift the stocks now.
Without more dollars, lifting the stocks is far away and the external bottleneck continues to operate fully.
Meanwhile, the economy maintains its two faces: the financial sector smiles in the heat of the increase in bonds (AL30 and GD30 rise 15% in the month) and share prices (Merval is 20% up) while in the real level
the recession deepens.
According to Abeceb, the estimate of economic activity falls 4.5% in interannual terms and
an average annual fall of 4% is projected, which could be almost 7% if the effect of the agricultural sector is excluded
.
The agricultural sector will be one of the drivers of the recovery, with an
improvement of 19.2% compared to the previous year
, boosting the sale of agricultural machinery, which would grow 14.6%.
They also forecast an 11% improvement in the
mining
industry and oil and gas (Vaca Muerta) would grow 7.4% and 4.3%, respectively.
At the same time, the knowledge industry would generate exports of US$ 10,000 million.
On the opposite side, the powerful face of recession is the
decline in consumption
due to the fall in the purchasing power of salaries in the face of inflation.
From food, beverages, appliances and even cars, the industrial chain points to negative numbers and
construction, which would fall 11%
, "will not see the light of day in public works until the new private participation system is defined, although other factors such as the lack of financing at competitive rates also weigh," the work says.
In the 100 days of Milei, the turnaround of the economy is very profound and it is still difficult for experts to clearly define
whether the exit will be in the shape of a "V",
or whether it will be rapid after hitting some bottom;
or if the fantasy of recovery from an elusive second semester will still continue in the middle of the year.