Haredi demonstrators block an intersection in Jerusalem in protest against the statements to promote the recruitment of Haredi for service in the IDF/police spokesmen
The budget department issued a harsh document regarding the recruitment of ultra-Orthodox and the economic price paid for their lack of integration into society.
The document shows the close connection between postponing service and old age as a measure that prevents integration into the labor market, and recommends applying the conscription law to all ultra-Orthodox, with the exception of a small group of learners: "a fenced numerical frame and the rest will be liable for conscription based on the usual mechanisms existing in the law."
The Budget Division also emphasizes that "it is also desirable to consider additional supplementary tools such as the implementation of economic sanctions on the individual who does not serve. Tools of this type are expected to increase the number of recruits and this without producing negative economic implications. The application of economic sanctions for the individual is expected to be effective to an increased extent, since the rate of transfers The government out of the 7 The disposable income of ultra-Orthodox households is high compared to similar populations."
The reference of the Budgets Division headed by Yogev Gerdos, reacted unusually to the attempts to promote the new recruitment law on its many initiatives and brought out the position of the professional echelon in the division proactively.
"The economic impact of the Defense Ministry's proposals (extension of mandatory and reserve service) in the coming decade is estimated at approximately NIS 104 billion, and the budgetary cost is estimated at approximately NIS 41 billion."
"This situation creates additional difficulties for the strength of the Israeli economy and society, due to the high overlap between the population serving in the IDF and the working population.
The proposed security laws are expected to significantly increase the existing economic burden on the working population and the economy as a whole," Gerdos attacked.
"Economic impact of about NIS 104 billion in the coming decade"/Flash 90, Itay Ron
According to the division's assessment, if the population currently in the status of "his doctrine and his art" were to enlist in a similar way to the non-Orthodox Jewish population, it would be possible to shorten the duration of the mandatory service by about 7 months for everyone.
Alternatively, if this population were to be mobilized for mandatory service similar to the non-Orthodox Jewish population, it would be possible to reduce the amount of reserve days that are expected to be directed to operational employment in 2024 (and in the following years as long as the amount of days remains the same) by approximately 486%.
For example, a reservist who was expected to serve 36 days in operational employment, with the recruitment of this population was expected to serve only about 5 days.
It will also be emphasized that meeting the security needs by conscript soldiers, while reducing the reserve service, is of particularly high economic significance, estimated at approximately NIS 1.7 billion per year, since this turnover is expected to reduce the cost of service to the economy by tens of thousands.
According to a budget department analysis, "the employment patterns of the ultra-orthodox men are expected to have significant macroeconomic consequences: in 2065, a damage to the GDP is expected to be approximately 13%, which reflects a corresponding decrease in the standard of living of all the citizens of the country. In addition, it will be necessary to raise direct taxes by 16 % in order to maintain the same level of services that the state provides without increasing the deficit."
Senior officials of the Ministry of Finance, who do not usually express their opinion on every legislative initiative that is on the table - chose rather to express their position on the Security Service Law, this after not sharing them in the proceedings (as is customary) and saying: "They are expected to bring about far-reaching economic effects in the budgetary and economic aspects, and to increase It is evident in the security burden placed on the individual."
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A damage to the GDP that will amount to about 13%, which reflects a corresponding decrease in the standard of living of all the citizens of the country / screenshot, spokespeople for the Ministry of Finance
The document highlights the expected future damage: "Setting an exemption age, and in particular a high exemption age, 'pushes' the ultra-Orthodox youth to stay in the yeshiva rather than integrate into the labor market. Setting an exemption age, and in particular a high exemption age of 35 as considered in the current proposal, is expected to bring to negative effects on a significant scale, and to create long-term damage to the Israeli economy and the Israeli economy.
"Using this outline or similar to it constitutes a reproduction of past mistakes, which result in the economy and society in Israel paying a heavy and doubled price: in the security aspect, the recruitment data of the ultra-orthodox public does not exceed a few thousand per year and in practice an exemption is given to the absolute majority of them.
In the economic aspect, the stipulation between the non-recruitment of ultra-orthodox men and their non-integration into the labor market led, as mentioned, to the creation of employment patterns that produce long-term damage to the entire economy.
Therefore,
"it should be emphasized that there is no indication that raising the exemption age is expected to cause yeshiva voters to mobilize in order to remove from themselves the limitations imposed on them within the framework of the arrangement, so that the arguments that arise in this regard are nothing more than 'optimistic thinking'. On the other hand, the economic damage is real and indisputable "
Furthermore, past experience shows that within the framework of the existing mechanism, reasonable recruitment targets are not achievable, but even in the case of full compliance with the recruitment targets as determined - in the near future the State of Israel will prohibit by legislation about 150,000 - ultra-Orthodox men from integrating into the labor market.
To illustrate, the total amount of Haredi men employed today is about 110,000.
Therefore, the devastating economic significance of this ban must be emphasized precisely for the population whose integration into the labor market is so critical for the State of Israel."
More on the same topic:
Haredim recruitment
Ministry of Finance