President Javier Milei considered on Tuesday that inflation is falling abruptly and estimated that, in March, the retail price index will show an increase of only one digit.
The idea of this decline - although to a lesser extent - is also reflected in
the perception that people have, in the short and medium term,
according to a private survey.
A survey by the Di Tella University - which was carried out between March 4 and 13 - showed that the population expects this month that
next year's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will accumulate an increase of 123.8% while that in February the expectation was 170.8%.
The survey collects information at the individual level about the expectation that each one has of the general increase in prices in the next 12 months (expected annual inflation).
And since May 2023, it incorporated a new question about
the expected monthly inflation for the next 30 days.
According to the University analysts, this question has a higher response rate than annual inflation, which suggests that in a context of high uncertainty it is probably easier for the person to answer what they think will happen in a month.
The monthly average
went from 19.08% expected inflation in February to 15.46% in March,
according to the survey.
“We found that people have less dispersion of opinion in monthly inflation than in annual inflation.
Regions and socioeconomic levels
Expected inflation decreases in all regions of the country.
The sampling is representative for three regions: the City of Buenos Aires (Capital), the Buenos Aires suburbs (GBA), and the rest of the country (Interior).
"This month, we observe that the expected inflation values
decrease considerably in CABA and GBA
compared to those registered last February," explained the Di Tella report.
"The expected inflation for the next 12 months in GBA is 140.7%, 61.1 points lower than the February measurement, of 201.8%. In CABA it is 148.2%, 66.3 points lower than the reported in February, 214.5%. In the interior, a significant decrease is also observed with respect to February measurements, reporting a value of 111.2%, against 147.1%. As with last month, in March "We observed high standard deviations for all three regions, indicating a large dispersion in respondents' responses," the report noted.
On the other hand, the average expected inflation perceived
by households is low for both the lowest and highest income sectors.
During March, a significant reduction in expected inflation was detected among households with different educational levels (which also approximates the level of income), and a change in trend.
Unlike recent months, the values reported this month in the survey show that
individuals with a higher educational level have lower inflation expectations.
"
Individuals with a lower educational level registered a decrease in perception, going from 151.9% in February to 127.7% this month, while those with a higher educational level went from a value of 180.5% in February to 122.2% in March," the study concluded.
NE