The Banque de France confirmed Thursday that it still forecasts 0.2% growth for French economic activity in the first quarter of 2024, an estimate “not incompatible” according to its director general of statistics with the 1% annual growth on which the government is counting. .
“Our estimates suggest that GDP would increase by +0.2% in the first quarter, driven by market services,” indicates the central bank in its new economic report. This estimate for the first quarter is “not incompatible with a forecast of 1% growth over the year”, estimated Olivier Garnier, general director of statistics, studies and international of the Banque de France, during a press briefing. , but this “would require some acceleration of activity in subsequent quarters”.
He recalled that the Banque de France rather estimated that with 0.2% growth in the first quarter, French economic activity should experience growth of 0.8% growth in 2024, in accordance with what the institution had indicated in its previous economic report published at the beginning of March.
However, "it will depend on the following quarters", indicated Olivier Garnier, and INSEE is also likely to revise upwards during the year a quarterly growth figure already published, creating a pleasant surprise, as had been the case. cases in 2023 for the second quarter figures.
The first quarter driven by merchant services
In detail, growth in the first quarter of 2024 would be marked by a “divergence between industry and services”, explained Olivier Garnier. GDP would be “driven this quarter by market services, thanks in particular to household services, information, transport services and business services, while activity in commerce would be stable”, specifies the Bank of France in its press release.
“On the other hand, industry and construction would be in decline” over the quarter, adds the general director of statistics, studies and international of the institution. As for the manufacturing industry, the increase in production in February (+0.9%) would not be enough to compensate for the drop of 1.6% in January and the stability of March. On the construction side, “activity changed little in March, both in structural work and in finishing work,” notes the Banque de France, and order books remain “degraded in this sector” over the quarter.
For the start of the second quarter, the picture should still be mixed. According to the Banque de France's forecasts for April, “activity would increase again in services, more slightly in industry and would deteriorate in the structural work of buildings”.