Enlarge image
The ECB Director Isabel Schnabel: The peak of the inflation trend should be reached in November
Photo: Ralph Orlowski / REUTERS
According to the European Central Bank (ECB), the sharp rise in inflation rates is likely to end soon. "We assume that inflation will peak in November and that inflation will gradually decline again in the coming year, in the direction of our inflation target of two percent," said ECB board member Isabel Schnabel on ZDF. “In fact, most forecasts assume that inflation will fall below that two percent. And to that extent, you can't really see any indications that inflation is spiraling out of control. "
The inflation rates have been climbing for months in Germany as well as in the euro area as a whole; rising oil and fuel prices caused the inflation rate in Germany to climb to 4.5 percent in October, the highest level in 28 years.
Schnabel commented a few hours before the publication of the latest data on the inflation rate in November from the Federal Statistical Office.
The Bundesbank assumes that the rate will reach almost six percent in November.
The values recently moved further and further away from the goal of the ECB to ensure stable prices in the currency area in the medium term with inflation of two percent.
The ECB has previously made it clear several times that it regards the rise in inflation as a temporary phenomenon.
You can very well understand that many people are currently worried about the very high inflation rates, said Schnabel.
"But you just have to understand that this has to do with the very unusual economic situation of the pandemic: After the lockdowns, the economy popped back astonishingly quickly, demand rose, and companies couldn't keep up with production." The consequences are delivery bottlenecks and raw material shortages.
Schnabel refers to special effects
In addition, there would be special statistical effects "that we have such high inflation rates today because prices were particularly low a year ago," explained Schnabel.
If you look at the comparison to the time before the pandemic, the rate of price increases in Germany is only around two percent on average.
Schnabel emphasized that the ECB is committed to the goal of price stability: "If we see that inflation could stay above two percent in the long term, then we will of course react very decisively."
Critics accuse the ECB of fueling inflation with its monetary policy because the central bank is pumping billions into the markets through bond purchases.
In addition, the ECB has kept interest rates at a record low for years.
"Of course we have the tools to tighten monetary policy," said Schnabel.
“But at the moment it would be a mistake to raise interest rates early and thus slow down the upswing.
Because that would essentially lead to increased unemployment and would not be able to change anything about the current very, very high inflation. "
hba / dpa / Reuters