It is now visible to the naked eye and the second stage of the Chinese rocket Lunga Marcia 5B in uncontrolled fall towards the Earth has been photographed in the sky of Rome. The astrophysicist Gianluca Masi, head of the Virtual Telescope, captured the images at dawn on Saturday 8 May. “The observation was easily possible with the naked eye”, says Masi, and “the object appeared clearly flashing, due to its rotation on itself: for this reason the trace recorded in the photograph shows a dense series of luminous strokes”. On Friday 7 May the same astrophysicist had photographed the rocket stage using the telescope.
Return at dawn on May 9, uncertainty reduced to 3 hours
The margin of uncertainty for the return has been reduced to 3 hours. This is indicated by the international sites that are following the trajectory described by the space debris and that make their calculations in line with those of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad). At the moment
their estimates agree that the impact in the atmosphere could occur in the early morning of Sunday 9 May.
The European organization for space surveillance Eusst (EU Space Surveillance and Tracking) also indicates a margin of uncertainty of just over 3 hours, which estimates the Italian 4.11 as approximate time, therefore the time slot between 1.00 around and around 7.30 in the morning of May 9th. It is currently impossible to establish with greater precision the time and place in which the return can take place.
Eusst, return to an inhabited area
unlikely The return of the second stage of the Chinese Long March 5B rocket
to an inhabited area
is now considered "unlikely": according to the estimate of the European organization for space surveillance Eusst (EU Space Surveillance and Tracking), the inclination of the 20-ton cylinder indicates that reentry can occur within the latitude between 41.48 degrees North and 41.48 degrees South. It is still a very large area and therefore further data is needed to establish the exact point of reentry, but the East notes that in this area
"most of the earth's surface is covered by the ocean or by uninhabited areas, so the statistical probability of an impact on the ground in populated areas is low".
"The organization also notes that" these forecasts however present uncertainties as the object is not controlled and a better estimate will be possible only a few hours before the actual return. "
The most up-to-date map of the possible area on which the re-entry into the atmosphere of the second stage of the Chinese Long March 5B rocket could take place (source: EUSST)