Juan Manuel Barca
07/27/2021 9:15 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 07/27/2021 9:15 AM
The idea of financing with own resources became more complicated and
the Treasury is expected to request a new draft from the Central Bank in the coming weeks
.
That is the expectation of several private consulting firms in the face of the greater demands to cover seasonal spending,
strong debt commitments in pesos and the purchase of dollars.
To finance the deficit, the Government resorted to a large extent to the
placement of debt
in the first half of the year
, while at the same time increasing the collection base and slowing down the pace of spending. This allowed it to accumulate a primary deficit of $ 208,098 million (0.5% of GDP), but even so
this month it demanded $ 130,000 million from the Central,
with a last turnaround two weeks ago.
"We believe that there is the possibility of new assistance to the Treasury by the Central, in part due to the primary deficit this month, and secondly, because there are two strong debt maturities in pesos, and
depending on the result of the tenders , there are chances that the Treasury will turn to the BCRA,
"said
Lucio García Méndez
, an analyst at
EcoGo
.
So far in July, the Ministry of Finance renewed maturities for $ 110,000 million and last week a debt swap was carried out, partially decompressing the August payment schedule.
The scenario is equally challenging:
this Wednesday there will be a new tender to cover the $ 160,000 million that expire on Friday and next week another $ 225,000 million will be added
.
In the Government they believe that new help from the BCRA would not be necessary after the last shipment,
since there is a "cushion" of resources
and the financing with debt is "assured".
On the other hand, they foresee a deficit of less than 4.2% estimated by the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, so the Treasury would be less adjusted to meet its commitments.
Guzmán's plan for 2021 is for 40% of the deficit to be financed with new debt in pesos and the remaining 60% with the assistance of the monetary entity
, a goal for now has been exceeded due to the fact that the Palacio de Hacienda obtained net financing for $ 356,000 million and $ 330,000 million from the BCRA, which represents 51% and 49% of each source of financing.
"We are better than expected,"
a finance man told Clarín when asked about the monetary assistance
.
Of course, they recognize that they must be "flexible" in these more "demanding" months
for the time of year, the expansion of spending due to pandemic, salary increases and the payment of the central administration bonus, along with additional assistance.
The weight mattress, however, is quite thin
.
Discounting debt payments in foreign currency and financial investments in pesos below the line,
the Treasury closed the semester with a cushion of $ 103,239 million deposited in the BCRA
, according to the consulting firm Equilibra.
And for the second half, it foresees that the agency will have to cover a gap of $ 900,000 million.
"They have a mattress, but they don't always use it. In past tenders where they got the pesos they needed, they still asked the BCRA for funds. In case they plan to use it, the account is very thin. You
hardly get all those pesos in the tenders. This is why the new transfer, if it does not occur this week, will be next week
, "anticipated Garay Méndez.
In a context where income growth will be lower
without the same boost from the soy harvest and the contribution of the tax on large fortunes
, EcoGo expects that for every three pesos that must be financed, the remaining primary deficit of 2.7% of GDP and interest payments, one will leave the market and the remaining two will be the product of transfers from the Central.
"In the coming weeks the Treasury will need assiduous assistance from the BCRA. We estimate that by the end of the year it would be close to $ 1 trillion.
These weeks can be complicated due to the amounts due in bills and bonds
. Furthermore, it is a period of great expense. pre-election and less income, "said
Pablo Repetto
, director
of Gabriel Rubinstein's
GRA consultancy
.
Although the issuance accelerated in June, other economists say it is not worrisome.
"
I would not be overly concerned if they make a new transfer, for now it has to do more with seasonality of expenses
in these months than with maturities
. In fact, with the last two exchanges the maturities of July and August, which was the two-
month period
, were quite cleared hardest of the year, "said
Joaquín Waldman
, economist at the
Ecolatina
consultancy
.
YN
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