When we ask this Parisian hospital, on the bridge for a year, to describe the health situation in Ile-de-France, he does not mention a third wave, and is content to launch: "We are waiting for the tidal wave. tide ”.
All indicators of the Covid-19 epidemic are red, a little darker every day.
"There is no positive indicator in Ile-de-France, the dynamic is on the rise on all indicators, which clearly shows that the epidemic is not controlled", analyzes Pascal Crépey, teacher-researcher in epidemiology and biostatistics at the School of Advanced Public Health Studies (EHESP) in Rennes.
While the government is due to announce on Thursday March 18 new restrictions for Ile-de-France and Hauts-de-France, in particular, two symbolic thresholds were crossed on Monday in the Paris region: an incidence rate of more than 425 and the peak in intensive care patients recorded during the second wave of the epidemic.
There are, of course, disparities between departments, but the incidence rate (the number of new cases recorded in one week per 100,000 inhabitants) has clearly increased in one week in each of the eight Ile-de-France departments and in the Oise.
As for resuscitation entries, they are also climbing.
According to the French Public Health census, 5,907 Covid patients were hospitalized on Tuesday in hospitals in Ile-de-France, including 1,177 in critical care.
The peak of the second wave (1138 patients on November 12) has been reached.
In their models made public at the end of February, scientists from the Institut Pasteur had anticipated an increase in admissions, and the exceeding of the peaks of the first wave as well, if the control of barrier measures were not reinforced.
A margin of approximately 300 sheaves
As a reminder, a year ago, at the height of the critical period of the first wave of Covid-19, intensive care admissions were spinning at high speed towards 3000. Dozens of medical evacuations had allowed new admissions, along with strict containment.
A few days before the anniversary date, we are not there yet.
The deprogramming of non-urgent operations, claimed from public and private establishments up to 40%, makes it possible to count on 1,500 resuscitation beds.
There is still a margin of around 300 beds.
At the rate of around thirty additional resuscitation beds each day, the 1,500 bed gauge will be able to hold out for another ten days.
But after ?
Will it be necessary to deprogram even more?
Contrary to what happened during the first wave, the hospital is not at a standstill for other pathologies.
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As for the medical evacuations which would make it possible to free beds, we are still far from the “tens or even hundreds” of evacuations announced by the Minister of Health Olivier Véran: ten patients were evacuated from Ile-de-France by the tunes this week.
Screening continues to increase
Side vaccination, the suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine has something to cool the most optimistic.
With more than 225,000 doses, this serum represents, since the launch of the vaccination, nearly 20% of injections in Ile-de-France, behind Pfizer (75%) and ahead of Moderna (5%).
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Sign that Ile-de-France residents have not thrown in the towel, screening continues to increase.
Some 540,000 tests were performed last week, all tests combined (PCR and antigens).
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As for the Oise, like all of its neighbors in the Hauts de France region, it does not display better health.
“Now is not the time to relax, each of us has a role to play, the prefecture had warned on Tuesday.
In the three intercommunalities where the virus circulates most actively, the incidence rate reached 624, 549 and 496 respectively. ”At the level of the department, this indicator is also worrying (361.9 per 100,000 inhabitants).
