The European Commission cuts Italy's growth estimates: GDP is expected to drop to 2.4% in 2022 and slow to 1.9% in 2023, compared to 4.1% and 2.3% expected in February, due to the impact of Russia's war against Ukraine
which weighs on supply chains and prices.
In the spring forecast, Brussels reports that "most of Italy's growth" for 2022 is "attributable to a carry-over effect" linked to the "rapid recovery" recorded in 2021. Due to the current geopolitical context "the prospects remain subject to pronounced downside risks ".
The Italian deficit and debt, despite the war in Ukraine, "will continue to decline but remain high".
This is what we read in the spring economic forecasts of the EU Commission according to which, the Italian deficit, from 7.2% last year, in 2022 will amount to 5.5% to fall to 4.3% a year. following.
The public debt, from 150.8% in 2021, according to European forecasts, will drop to 147,
"The real Italian GDP - explains Brussels - contracted in the first quarter of 2022 and the short-term prospects remain modest, since the economic repercussions of the Russian military aggression against Ukraine have affected economic sentiment and exacerbated the existing obstacles to 'expansion".
"The return of" Italy's economy "to pre-crisis production levels is postponed to the second half of 2022", the European Commission again points out, also indicating that "the economy should return to a more sustained expansion path. next year, thanks to the "Pnrr" investments financed by the Recovery fund ".
The inflation rate in Italy will touch 6% (standing at 5.9%, two percentage points less than the eurozone average) this year to then reach an average of 2.3% in 2023. This is what we read. in the spring forecasts of the EU Commission which revise the inflation rate upwards also for our country.
Last February, in fact, the EU executive for Italy estimated an inflation rate at 3.8% in 2022, to then go down to 1.6% in 2023. The war in Ukraine has "exacerbated the bottlenecks in food supplies and pressure on existing costs ".
The growth of the entire Eurozone will slow to 2.7% in 2022 and to 2.3% in 2023. The European Commission writes in the spring economic forecast,
cutting the previous February estimates which gave GDP to 4% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. Inflation instead flies to record levels: in 2022 it will reach 6.1% (against the 3.5% forecast for February), driven by energy prices.
In 2023, an easing to 2.7% is expected.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine "is exacerbating the headwinds that previously were expected to abate," Brussels points out.
This year Germany will record GDP growth of 1.6%, the lowest level among the 27 if we exclude Estonia, for which a 1% increase in GDP is expected, and the same indicated for Finland.
It is the estimate made by the European Commission which thus cut the forecast made last February by two points,
ANSA agency
Bank of Italy: debt increases - Economy
With reference to the breakdown by subsectors - informs the Bank of Italy - the debt of the central administrations increased by 18.9 billion;
that of local administrations and that of social security institutions remained virtually unchanged.
(HANDLE)
