"If Europe does not help sub-Saharan Africa to industrialize, immigration will explode"

Francis Journot is a consultant and entrepreneur.

He directs the

Collectivité Nationale

If Africa fails to industrialize and modernize, we will see an increase in situations of extreme poverty, malnutrition and subsequently chaos across the continent. Several hundred million Africans among a population which should number 2.5 billion inhabitants in 2050, will then wish to come to France and Europe to flee hunger and death.

The democracies which protect Europeans from war and disorder will not be able to survive this upheaval. The collapse of Western civilization in a more or less distant future is often mentioned. It could now happen in less than 3 decades. Whether we think that the origin of climate change is mainly anthropogenic or not, the subject of the economic development of sub-Saharan Africa to avoid chaos, appears more urgent than that of climate.

In sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the highest demographics, the number of people suffering from malnutrition was estimated at 236 million in 2017 among 431 million living in extreme poverty.

According to international institutions, these figures could double or triple in the years to come.

30 million young workers enter the African labor market each year, but only 10-15% of them find employment.

Out of idleness, some join Islamist sects.

The IPCC calls for carbon neutrality that would go against the progression of work and industry in emerging or developing countries.

Francis Journot

The International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates that informal employment rates among young people aged 15 to 24 reached 94.9% in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2018 and up to 97.9% (Senegal) in French-speaking African countries. from West. The UN is aware of the looming humanitarian crisis because according to it "if

".

The approach of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the UN for 2030, foremost among which are extreme poverty and hunger, is holistic.

But the 17 desired indivisible and transversal objectives are often opposed to each other.

The IPCC, which brandishes the threat of 250,000 additional deaths per year due to climate change, calls for carbon neutrality which would however go against the progress of work and industry in emerging or developing countries.

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This policy will condemn hundreds of millions of people to remain in extreme poverty at a time when nearly 900 million are undernourished in the world and one million of them die each month from this scourge. So reserve funding for projects only because they meet green or digital criteria when we know that these will create little or no jobs and will most often fail for lack of efficient infrastructure or ecosystems, would be unwise. Moreover, everyone knows that poverty in Africa constitutes a fertile ground on which Islamic terrorism thrives. Also, this green finance policy, also claimed by the French Development Agency (AFD), could have the effect of maintaining theSub-Saharan Africa in underdevelopment and weaken France as well as other countries.

If we judge by the current state of sub-Saharan industry, we can only wonder about the method of international institutions and the lack of will to industrialize African or Western decision-makers.

The World Community has been wrong for 6 decades but has done well by funding NGOs and distributing alms.

Africa's industry and economic situation have been deteriorating for 60 years.

We must break with a condescending and humanitarianist discourse held by NGOs and institutions, according to which Africans can only find economic salvation by migrating to a West which would be responsible for all their ills.

Francis Journot

For example, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), from 9,600 industrial companies inherited from Belgian colonization, the number rose to 507 recently identified. However, the abundant labor force and wages lower than those of Western countries, could constitute a competitive advantage which could attract industrial investments. Building a manufacturing industry capable of producing its own consumer goods would be the best way to create jobs and eradicate extreme poverty and hunger. The competitive advantage will make it possible to export.

We must break with a condescending and humanitarianist discourse held by NGOs and institutions, according to which Africans can only find economic salvation by migrating to a West which would be responsible for all their ills.

The new, ambitious, trained and graduated African generations are ready to take up this challenge of industry and modernization, but only a comprehensive industrialization plan for sub-Saharan Africa would allow it.

The goods bought by Africans are today mainly imported from China but the proposal to

"

is welcomed by them.

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After more or less agreed transfers of know-how and technologies to Chinese companies now in competition and growing mistrust, a "

Could convince many large companies around the world to change their global value chains (GVCs). Given the high cost of labor in most Western countries as well as the weight of taxes and standards, labor-intensive industries will only very rarely return. However, cost equalization and pooling mechanisms would allow European companies to regain competitiveness. The huge future African market would offer us new perspectives and also promote growth in France and Europe. Sharing of know-how and new exchanges would benefit the States and populations of the two continents.

In some industrial companies, the gas and electricity bill has almost doubled in a few years. Taxes and standards weaken industries for the benefit of China. Industrial sectors are being rolled back and will put millions of European workers out of work. The EU shuns nuclear energy which emits little CO₂ but promotes energy transition products made in China including batteries and electric cars with devastating ecological footprints or wind turbines and voltaic panels also partly financed by French and European subsidies.

In addition, when several tens of millions of women from sub-Saharan Africa, will run artisanal or larger businesses, will occupy industrial positions and three or four times more service jobs, indirect and induced, the birth rate and the poverty rate will fall naturally.

It seems risky to advocate, in the name of a principle of climate precaution, an ideological policy that will surely sacrifice a large part of humanity.

Francis Journot

If we add to this, that an increase in the standard of living will encourage the education of children and the emancipation of women, the family model will evolve.

Thus the African demographic balance will decrease by several hundred million inhabitants and defeat current forecasts.

Let us not forget, before preventing the development of sub-Saharan Africa or destroying more economic balances in Europe, that climatology is a science of interactions, of which by definition, the multiplicity of factors, the many disciplines involved and the lack of predictability, should prompt us to be more humble and cautious. It is doubtful whether the ecological paradigm which risks undermining many economies around the world and thus condemning hundreds of millions of poor people to hunger and death, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, will win unanimous support among the poorest individuals. more concerned.

European populations could also, when the migratory tsunamis have got the better of social protection systems, their culture and their civilization, regret having given in to dogmatism.

So it seems risky to advocate, in the name of a principle of climate precaution, an ideological policy that will surely sacrifice a large part of humanity.

Perhaps tomorrow we will have to face the gaze of new generations who will judge our mistakes.

Let us hope that the international institutions take the measure of their responsibility and the possible consequences of their dangerous policy.