China expresses its dissatisfaction with the possible visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan 1:03
Hong Kong (CNN) --
The United States is no stranger to angry responses from China over its support for Taiwan, an autonomous island that Beijing claims as its own territory.
But last week, China's warnings against a possible trip by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei appear to have caused concern in Washington.
After learning of Pelosi's plans, the Chinese Foreign Ministry promised last Tuesday to take "decisive and forceful measures" if they went ahead with the trip.
Since then, a flurry of comments from US officials has only increased the sense of alarm.
OPINION |
Biden, Beijing and the Taiwan Problem: The US, Defender of World Democracy?
On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden told reporters that the US military believes a visit by Pelosi to Taiwan "is not a good idea right now."
On Thursday, Pelosi said it is important to show support for Taiwan, but he declined to discuss any travel plans, citing security concerns.
"I think what the president was saying is that maybe the military was afraid that my plane would be shot down or something. I don't know exactly," Pelosi said.
advertising
On Sunday, former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also weighed in, offering to accompany Pelosi on her supposed trip.
"Nancy, I'll go with you. I'm forbidden to be in China, but not in freedom-loving Taiwan. See you there!"
Pompeo wrote on Twitter.
Privately, Biden administration officials have expressed concern that China may try to declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan to cut short the potential trip, a US official told CNN.
China's government has not publicly specified what "forceful measures" it plans to take, but some Chinese experts say Beijing's reaction could include a military component.
"China will respond with unprecedented countermeasures, the strongest it has taken since the Taiwan Strait crises," said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China.
Military conflicts in the Taiwan Strait erupted in the 1950s, the decade after the founding of Communist China, with Beijing bombing several outlying islands controlled by Taipei on two separate occasions.
The last big crisis happened in 1995-1996, after the then president of Taiwan, Lee Teng-hui, visited the United States.
Angered by the visit, China fired missiles into waters near Taiwan, and the crisis only ended after the United States sent two carrier battle groups to the area in a strong show of support for Taipei.
"If Pelosi goes ahead with her visit, the United States will certainly prepare to respond militarily to a possible Chinese military response," Shi said.
"The situation between China and the United States will be very tense."
Pelosi's trip would not be the first time a US House Speaker has visited Taiwan.
In 1997, Newt Gingrich met with Lee, the island's first democratically elected president, in Taipei, just days after his trip to Beijing and Shanghai, where Gingrich said he had warned Chinese leaders against military intervention by China. United States if Taiwan was attacked.
According to Gingrich, the response he received then was "calm".
Publicly, the Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized Gingrich after his visit to Taiwan, but the response was limited to rhetoric.
Beijing has indicated that things would be different this time.
Twenty-five years later, China is stronger, more powerful and confident, and its leader Xi Jinping has made it clear that he will no longer tolerate any slight or challenge to his interests.
After a decade in power, where is Xi Jinping leading China?
"Under Xi Jinping, the Beijing regime is completely different. China is in a position to be more assertive, to impose costs and consequences on countries that do not take into account China's interests in their policy formulation or actions," said Drew Thompson, a visiting senior fellow at the National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
"So in that sense, it's a very different China than the one Newt Gingrich visited in 1997."
Under Xi, the wave of Chinese nationalism has risen, and support for "reunification" with Taiwan, possibly by force, is very high.
Hu Xijin, former editor of the state-run nationalist tabloid Global Times and a leading voice of Chinese public opinion on the Internet, has suggested that Chinese Liberation Army warplanes should "accompany" Pelosi's planes to Taiwan and fly over the island. .
This would be a major violation of Taiwan's autonomy.
As tensions across the strait soar to their highest level in decades, China has sent a record number of warplanes to Taiwan's self-declared air defense identification zone, and Taiwan has sent planes to warn them to stay away, but so far the PLA planes have not entered the island's territorial airspace.
"If the Taiwanese military dare to fire on the PLA fighter jets, we will resolutely respond by shooting down Taiwanese warplanes or attacking Taiwanese military bases. If the US and Taiwan want all-out war, the time is coming to liberate Taiwan." Taiwan," Hu wrote.
Although Hu's belligerent comments toward Taiwan have long resonated in China's nationalist circles, they do not represent Beijing's official position (and some of Hu's earlier threats against Taiwan have turned out to be futile).
But, as Thompson points out, the fact that Hu's remarks have passed uncensored by the heavily controlled Chinese media shows "a certain degree of support among the Communist Party," if only for its propaganda value.
Pelosi's alleged trip would come at a sensitive time for China.
The People's Liberation Army celebrates its founding anniversary on Aug. 1 as Xi, the country's most powerful leader in decades, prepares to break convention and seek a third term at the ruling Communist Party's 20th congress this fall.
China warns the US about Nancy Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan
While the politically sensitive moment could trigger a more forceful response from Beijing, it could also mean the Party wants to ensure stability and prevent things from getting out of hand, experts say.
"Honestly, this is not a good time for Xi Jinping to provoke a military conflict just before the 20th party congress. It is in Xi Jinping's interest to manage this rationally and not instigate a crisis that adds to all the other crises with which has to deal with," Thompson said, citing a slowing Chinese economy, a worsening housing crisis, rising unemployment and a constant struggle to curb sporadic outbreaks under his zero-Covid policy.
"So I think whatever they do, it will be measured, it will be calculated. They will certainly try to put more pressure on Taiwan, but I think they will refrain from anything especially risky or that might create conditions that they cannot control," he said.
Shi, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing, agreed that the tension between the United States and China is unlikely to escalate into a military conflict.
"Unless things accidentally get out of control in a way that no one can predict, there is no possibility of a military conflict between the US and China," he said.
But Shi said that right now it is difficult to predict what China will do.
"It is a very difficult situation to deal with. Firstly, (Beijing) must take unprecedented and determined countermeasures. Secondly, it must avoid military conflicts between the United States and China," he said.
"We won't know how things will end until the last moment."
-- CNN's Brad Lendon and Kylie Atwood contributed to this report.
Nancy PelosiTaiwan
