The world is clamoring for India: New Delhi is threatened with a "tightrope act"

Created: 07/30/2022, 10:15 am

By: Catherine Brown

A busy street in a market in New Delhi in India.

© Nasir Kachroo/Imago

The world order is shaking: China and Russia are looking for new partners, the West is moving closer together in times of need.

Could a bloc form between East and West?

India in particular is a key player on this issue, experts say.

The country is currently being courted from all sides. 

MUNICH -- Europe discusses shorter showers and cold winters -- while India and China grab Russian energy at hefty discounts.

The West is largely going through the sanctions against the aggressor alone.

In Asia, on the other hand, the opportunity is being used to reshuffle the cards: economically, politically, geostrategically.

Poker for a new world order - and the USA and its allies are apparently not allowed to play.

China is on Russia's side in the Ukraine war

Instead, the big players are China and Russia.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said a few weeks after Putin's attack on Ukraine that the friendship with Russia is "solid as a rock".

"From China's point of view, Russia is becoming an increasingly important partner," says Angela Stanzel, Asia expert from the Stiftung Politik und Wissenschaft (SWP).

"They share one great thing in common: dissatisfaction with the current world order, led by the US."

Even if China always emphasizes that it is neutral on the question of war, Stanzel says: "This silence not only means approval of the invasion of Russia, but even sympathy for it." Xi Jinping sees Putin as a junior partner who is a test for him goes through

"Beijing is watching closely how the West reacts to the war of aggression in order to be prepared for a possible invasion of Taiwan," says Stanzel.

India in a comfortable position - courted on all sides

China has now overtaken Germany as the largest importer of fossil fuels from Russia.

Large quantities of Russian oil also flow to New Delhi: since the beginning of the war, Moscow has risen to become India's second largest oil supplier.

"India plays a particularly important role in the world order," says Christian Wagner, an expert on Indian foreign policy at the SWP.

“On the one hand, Russia is India's most important partner right now.

And on the other hand, the US has a paramount interest in India as an accomplice in the Indo-Pacific struggle with China.”

India itself is currently in the comfortable situation of being courted from all sides - on the other hand, a "tightrope act" is looming, says Wagner.

“New Delhi begs the question: who do we benefit most from?

Currently by Putin - but if the war continues to weaken Russia, Moscow will become even more dependent on China.

And strengthening China is not in India's interest at all.” In the long term, it could therefore make more sense for India to accept offers from the USA for armaments cooperation, says Wagner.

Expert advises: Scholz trip to India like Merkel to China

Asia expert Angela Stanzel also sees a key figure in India.

"Prime Minister Modi always points out that he doesn't want to commit himself to anyone - but how long will he be able to keep this balance?" Germany can intervene here itself, says Stanzel.

"If Chancellor Scholz were willing to travel to India with a large delegation every year - like Merkel to China - that would be a clear signal."

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“And you mustn't make a mistake here: it's not about west versus east.

Not all Asian countries are on Russia's side – South Korea and Japan, for example, are participating in Western sanctions.

And not all countries want to see either China or the United States at the forefront of world politics.” Stanzel thinks the question is more: “Who wants to continue the current liberal model of order and who wants to change it?” China and Russia have African countries already pulled their strings - Putin as a security guarantor, Xi Jinping as a guarantor of prosperity.

"Many countries might have preferred to work with Europe and the USA, but didn't have the alternative." Western countries should not only keep to themselves, but also have to shift their focus more towards the South and East.

The example of India shows: