The government will distribute a total of HK$5,000 consumer vouchers in the second phase of 2022 to the 6.36 million citizens who have been verified on Sunday (7th).
In order to stimulate the economy's recovery from the epidemic and alleviate the negative economic impact caused by international factors, the government has launched a consumer voucher program for two consecutive years.
Past data shows that consumer coupons can alleviate the impact of the economic downturn in the short term, but it is not a long-term policy. First, if it is distributed every year, it will put a heavy pressure on public finances. Second, it does not fully comply with the principle of social distribution, and it is not targeted. to help people in need.
With the rapid changes in the international situation in recent years, there are still many challenges for Hong Kong's economic development in the future. The government should plan how to deal with long-term development problems while distributing consumer coupons.
Consumer coupons have a short-term stimulus
As early as last year, a survey conducted by the Hong Kong Institute of Business Studies of Lingnan University showed that more than 70% of the respondents would use coupons for daily necessities and food.
And Octopus sales and marketing director Li Yuer also revealed that consumer coupons are most used in the catering industry.
This reflects that consumer coupons should be able to help some industries such as the catering industry that have been hit hard by the epidemic.
The government's earlier distribution of consumer coupons has practical effects on the economy.
(Photo by Huang Baoying)
Moreover, past data shows that consumer coupons do have a role in boosting consumption. For example, after the issuance of two consumer coupons in August and October last year, the total retail sales in the two months increased by 11.9% and 12.1% year-on-year respectively, which was significantly higher than the previous year. in other months.
The effect of the distribution of RMB 5,000 in April this year was even more pronounced. The total retail sales in April increased by 11.7% year-on-year, much higher than the -13.8% in March and -1.6% in May. This reflects the consumption coupons. It does have a real effect.
Driving the economy lies in investment
Although consumer coupons are useful, after all, they are only temporary measures with limited effect.
For example, for the total retail sales mentioned above, after the distribution of consumer coupons in April, its effectiveness has been greatly weakened in May, and even contracted year-on-year.
The logic behind the distribution of consumer coupons was that Hong Kong's economy was in trouble due to the epidemic, and some industries were greatly affected. As long as it can survive the difficult period after the epidemic, the economy can slowly recover.
However, the international situation has changed dramatically in recent years, such as the Russian-Ukrainian war at the beginning of the year, and the recent cross-strait crisis triggered by Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
The unique predicament faced by Hong Kong may be prolonged due to factors such as Sino-US rivalry. The situation is far more complicated than when consumer coupons were originally designed. There must be new ways to reform the economy to solve the problem.
Political factors of Sino-US rivalry are turning into long-term economic instability, (AP)
The fundamental problem facing the Hong Kong economy is that the international political situation has transformed into a long-term economic instability factor, which makes people feel unpredictable about the future.
The golden rule of economics is to invest only in stable and predictable situations.
The fundamental driving force for economic growth is investment. Only by increasing production through infrastructure improvement or technological innovation, and finally giving back to the real economy, can the economy be driven.
But the unease makes emotional funds hesitant to continue investing in Hong Kong, and ultimately the economy cannot form a virtuous circle.
Consumer coupons cannot solve such a large structural problem.
Financial Secretary Chen Maobo on Wednesday (3rd) chaired a symposium on "The Spirit of the President's Important Speech" and mentioned the "Four Hopes" of the President's July 1 speech this year.
These four points actually point out the current problems in Hong Kong: the level of governance is not enough to cope with the rapidly changing international environment, so efforts must be made to improve the level of governance; the economy relies on "old capital" and lacks new impetus, so it is necessary to continuously strengthen the momentum of development; the people Worrying about the future life, it is necessary to effectively solve the problems of people's livelihood; various factors have caused the society and economy to fall into the predicament of instability, and it is necessary to maintain harmony and stability.
The government should start from these four points. In addition to fulfilling the planned consumption coupons, it should also pay more attention to how to combat and resolve the unstable factors of Hong Kong's economy.
External risks have been unresolved and waves have arisen again and again. Hong Kong must prepare for the economic crisis and travel with peace of mind. What is the policy goal of formulating consumer coupons and distributing consumer coupons?
The confused account of consumer coupons is convenient for citizens to pay attention
