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What would happen if agriculture changed its production completely overnight to organic? British researchers have gone through exactly this scenario in a model calculation for England and Wales. The result: pure organic farming would increase greenhouse gas emissions.
According to Laurence Smith of the Royal Agricultural University and colleagues in the journal "Nature Communications", emissions of climate-damaging gases would sink in Wales and England. In organic cereals and vegetable crops there would be about 20 percent savings compared to commercial farming. In livestock farming, it would at least four percent.
However, the yields would fall drastically, according to the researchers by up to 40 percent. The British would have to import food from other countries that did not grow purely organic and would need more land to serve the greater demand. Additional cultivation and transport would increase emissions to agriculture in Wales and England by 1.7x compared to today, the researchers believe.
The weaknesses of organic farming
However, the number is subject to uncertainties. It is difficult to calculate the exact amount of greenhouse gases that would be released on a changeover. The number varies depending on the size of the utilized agricultural area, what is being cultivated and how high the yield is. The model calculations provide only a rough estimate, but reveal the fundamental weaknesses of organic agriculture.
This yields less income than commercial farming and thus consumes more land. "I think that the results of the study are in principle transferable to Germany," says Klaus Butterbach-Bahl of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), which was not involved in the investigation. It is unlikely that England and Wales will completely change their agricultural production. But the study shows that organic farming could have unwanted consequences.
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According to a study from 2017, it would theoretically be possible to feed the entire world population with sustainable organic products. But only if consumer behavior changes drastically and the world population does not continue to grow. An unlikely scenario.
A 100% conversion to organic experts therefore consider impossible. They predict that the world's population will grow strongly by 2050, and agriculture will then have to produce about fifty percent more income. Therefore, it can be assumed that even under conventional conditions acreage would have to be greatly expanded.
Under ecological conditions, this effect would be even greater because the yields of organic farming are lower. In order to switch completely to organic by 2050, in the worst scenario - with large crop losses and the most unfavorable conditions due to climate change - 81 percent more land would have to be used for agriculture.
No reason to demonize organic farming
"Without a modified diet of humans a substantial conversion to organic agriculture will not be possible without additional greenhouse gas emissions", conclude the researchers in the current study. However, they do make two points that could offset the additional emissions: meat consumption and food waste.
Much of the greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are methane emissions from animal husbandry. Whether the cows, pigs and chickens are kept after organic seals or not plays thereby hardly a role. In Germany, 60 percent of methane emissions are due to agriculture. The climate effect of the trace gas exceeds that of carbon dioxide by a factor of 25 - and its concentration in the air rises rapidly. (How much emissions could be saved in Germany through meat abstinence, read here.)
The EU also estimates that 50 percent of Europe's food is thrown away. Worldwide it is about 30 percent. The reason: a large part of the harvest does not end up in the supermarkets, but remains in the fields, breaks down during transport or fails due to the demanding quality standards. Private households are also contributing to food waste. Statistically speaking, every person in Germany throws away about 81 kilograms of food per year.
If every planted potato, strawberry or turnip in Wales and England were actually eaten, agriculture could be converted to organic farming, according to the study. Food imports would not be necessary then. The crucial climate killer is therefore not the organic agriculture, emphasize Smith and colleagues.
Adrian Müller from the ETH Zurich, who was not involved in the study, also warns against reducing the benefits of organic farming solely to greenhouse gas savings. This is just a small indicator among many. For example, organic farming could prevent soil erosion and over-fertilization.
"If you take the other indicators, then the organic agriculture rather provides a comprehensive sustainable system than conventional agriculture," said Müller. Other studies have also shown that switching to 60% organic farming would have little negative impact on greenhouse gas emissions. At present, about nine percent of the land in Germany is managed organically.
In summary, if agriculture in Wales and England were completely converted to organic farming, greenhouse gas emissions would fall regionally but increase overall. The reason: The crop yields would decrease by up to 40 percent, additional imports would be necessary. However, reducing food waste and meat production could offset the additional emissions.