The protests of the democracy movement in Hong Kong have been going on for months. The security forces of the Chinese Special Administrative Region are acting with increasing severity against the demonstrators. At the Polytechnic University on the Kowloon Peninsula, the city's largest state-funded university, officials have surrounded students and activists.
On Tuesday evening were still included about 100 people. Previously, there had already been around 1,000 arrests. Hong Kong's controversial Prime Minister Carrie Lam appealed to the remaining protesters to surrender. If you are over 18 years old, but expect a charge for trouble-rearing.
In the interview, protest researcher Andy Buschmann talks about the strategy of the demonstrators and the mistakes of law enforcement.
SPIEGEL: For months, the protests in Hong Kong were largely peaceful. Now protesters arm themselves and attack the police. Why is violence suddenly escalating?
Bushman: Armed demonstrators make up only a very small part of the protest movement. Of course, when some protesters fire their guns at police officers, it does create spectacular images in the media, but it's far from being a mass phenomenon. In my opinion, the violence of the protesters anyway only a reaction to previous police brutality. The scenes that went around the world are from the attempted storming of the Chinese University by the security forces. The students, who often live in the dormitory on campus, knew they would not get a fair trial if they were arrested and face high prison sentences.
SPIEGEL: How exactly have protests developed?
Bushman: Followers of a social movement choose from a large repertoire of possible forms of action depending on their level of escalation: from harmless demonstrations to street blockades to the use of force against police officers. In the summer, the protests in Hong Kong were still completely peaceful. At that time, the G20 meeting was held in Japan and the protesters hoped for the support of the world community. And that usually works best when you are perceived as a peaceful sacrifice. But when the peaceful protest did not show the desired effect even after months, violence seemed to be the last remaining option, at least for some demonstrators - which also had to do with the aggressive behavior of the police.
In the video: How a SPIEGEL reporter experienced a day of protests
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SPIEGEL: What mistakes have the security forces made?
Bushman: The police did a bad job from the start. Instead of gently guiding the crowd during protest marches, they have lightly fired tear gas. These attacks also hurt moderate supporters of the protest movement. This was followed by mass arrests, and peaceful demonstrators often ended up in jail. The police continued to provide new reasons for more radical protesters to justify violence against the security forces - with the support of the majority of the population.
SPIEGEL: Is it possible to predict when peaceful protests will turn into violence?
Bushman: Basically, this always happens when the protesters see no other way out - for example, when state organs can not be prosecuted for their abuses. Using the example of Hong Kong, this can be illustrated by the missing identification numbers of the police officers. The officials are therefore not responsible for individual misconduct. Thus, the protesters finally realize that they can only react with violence to the violence of the state.
SPIEGEL: Is not it naive to assume that you can win a violent confrontation with a more powerful police or army apparatus?
Bushman: Basically. And from history we know that above all non-violent movements were politically successful. Because peaceful protests can mobilize many more people. Moreover, the international community is more willing to support non-violent protest movements than militants. However, in autocratic regimes, violent protests can be quite successful if it is recognized that they represent the only possible response to state repression. It is often decisive that moderate elites turn away from state power and support the protests. Such was the case of the Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos, whose fall in 1986 by a protest movement, some units of the military had significant influence.
SPIEGEL: On the other hand, violence can also lead to protest movements losing the support of the vast majority of the population.
Bushman: That can happen. However, according to my observation, this does not apply to Hong Kong, because the composition of the protest movement has hardly changed since the beginning. There are still young and old, students and businessmen alike taking to the streets in their lunch break to demonstrate. According to polls, less than half of the population finds that the protesters have gone too far.
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SPIEGEL: What did you experience concretely in Hong Kong?
Bushman: On Monday, for example, I watched protesters set up barricades on a highway to divert police from the Polytechnic University, which has been surrounded by officials for days. Next door in a park, residents and journalists followed the action. Suddenly the police stormed the park and indiscriminately fired rubber bullets at the people there - including three completely uninvolved women who came from a public restroom.
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SPIEGEL: Does not the experience nevertheless show that violent protests usually end up helping the rulers, because it makes it easier to justify a massive deployment of security forces?
Bushman: That really depends on the individual case. The movement here in Hong Kong has been very clever so far. The protesters know very well how the pictures are perceived by the world public. The brutal crackdown by the police leaves the forces in a bad light.
SPIEGEL: When the situation escalates, it becomes increasingly difficult for both sides to resolve the underlying conflict. What solution could there be in Hong Kong?
Bushman: Normally, intermediaries would have to help from outside. That could be other governments or international organizations. The difficulty, however, is that Hong Kong is not a state of its own, but belongs to China, which will not allow outside interference. And Beijing also has no interest in a non-violent solution that would be mutually acceptable.