At the World Climate Change Conference in Madrid, the Federal Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (SPD) moves with a proud chest. "We are praised here from all sides," she says, referring to the cabinet's decisions on climate protection. "It sets a sign for what has to happen here in the further negotiations." The industrialized nations would have to make further commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, just as the Germans would have done with their Climate Protection Act and the "firmly agreed" coal exit.
But the model student is not good for Germany. This is the result of a study that the research institute Climate Analytics has made on behalf of the Think Tank Agora for traffic and which is the SPIEGEL exclusive. Accordingly, there is a clear lack of ambition to achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which aims to limit global global warming to 1.5 degrees. "In order to live up to the Paris Agreement, Germany and the EU must raise their medium-term reduction targets," according to the SPIEGEL study.
The researchers have calculated how much the emissions in Germany would have to fall and come to 73 percent by the year 2030. Currently, the German government has committed to 55 percent and decided appropriate measures in its climate package. Special attention was paid by the Berlin scientists from Climate Analytics to the transport sector. Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector have remained practically the same for years and have played a major role in Germany missing out on its 2020 climate targets.
Transport Minister Scheuer is again the problem
In their analysis, the environmental experts calculated that cars, trucks and airplanes produce 5.5 billion tonnes of CO2 in current emissions trends. However, 2.6 billion tonnes are only compatible with the 1.5 degree target. Instead of a planned reduction in CO2 emissions of 40 to 42 percent, at least 53 percent would be necessary. "With the measures that have been decided so far, Germany will not only break its national climate protection targets, but miss the climate protection contribution that the Paris Agreement demands of us," says Christian Hochfeld, director of Agora Verkehrswende and warns the German government of the climate program adopted so far to be satisfied.
At present, a number of laws are being discussed in the Bundestag. An initial legislative package, which regulates, among other things, VAT reductions for long-distance tickets and the promotion of building renovation, is in the mediation committee between the Bundestag and the Bundesrat.
According to current estimates from the Federal Environment Ministry, the climate protection measures introduced by Federal Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer (CSU) are not even enough to achieve half of the agreed savings, as SPIEGEL reported on the weekend.
Time is running out
According to internal estimates by the Ministry of the Environment, the measures proposed by Scheuer in the context of the latest climate package and approved by the Federal Government only result in a CO2 saving of around 18 million tons per year. In the process, Scheuer has to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in traffic by at least 55 million tons per year so that Germany can achieve its climate goals. The numbers are based on a scientific opinion for the Environmental Department. Should the need for new, more stringent goals be confirmed, the Department of Transportation would be under even greater pressure.
The researchers of Climate Analytics therefore recommend: In addition to its own ambition increase, Germany should also urge that the EU also significantly raises its current 2030 reduction target of 40 percent. "The experts urge to hurry:" Both should be in 2020, as the timetable for the Paris Agreement and the Climate Change Plan 2050 foresees. "A first step should be taken today: the new EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will present her" New Green Deal ", with which the EU wants to commit to stricter climate targets.
The study considers it possible to achieve higher emission targets in traffic. "The main levers are the greatly accelerated electrification of passenger and goods transport as well as the accelerated expansion of renewable electricity generation", write the authors and also recommend shifting more traffic to public transport as well as cycling and pedestrian traffic. An overall more efficient transport organization is needed, the report says.