The curve of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy is at a standstill for the third consecutive week, as are the relationship between positive cases and tampons and the Rt contagion index: "after the descent phase there is a stabilization and a this point the curve could go up or down, but it is difficult to think that it can go down with 16 regions and an autonomous province in yellow ", observes physicist Giorgio Sestili, founder of the Facebook page 'Coronavirus-Data and scientific analysis' and of the communication network of science "giorgiosestili.it".
"Compared to the previous week, the situation is almost stable and it is the third week in a row that the cases oscillate around the same numbers: there were 84,000 in the week just ended, that is 3% less than the 86,000 of the previous one", he continues. 'expert.
"The number of swabs has also been nearly identical for two weeks," with around 1.7 million tests, with a 2% reduction in the past week.
The positive fact is that "finally there has been a reduction in deaths for the third consecutive week": from 10% less than last week to 7% reduction in the previous one and to 4% less than three weeks ago.
"It is a fact - says Sestili - that reflects the reduction in infections three weeks ago".
Finally, the only growing parameter is that of admissions to intensive care units, which in the last week recorded an increase from 906 to 964 (equal to 6%).
However, it should be noted that in the previous week there was a decrease of 15%.
The ratio between positive cases and tampons fluctuates between 4% and 6% and the index similar to that of Rt contagiousness detected by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Iss), i.e. the CovIndex which is updated on the basis of the relationship between new positive cases and swabs performed.
"The curve has been flat now from January 24-26. We are not improving, but not getting worse, and every week we have the same cases as the previous week: this means that each positive person infects another," Sestili observes.
"It will be necessary to observe now - he concludes - what happens on a regional and provincial basis: it is important to monitor the situation well at the local level".