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Police officers will check the border in March 2020.
Photo: Carsten Rehder / DPA
According to a study, the border closings in Europe around a year ago came too late to stop the coronavirus sustainably.
Researchers working with mathematician and biostatistician Tanja Stadler from ETH Zurich reported that on March 8, 2020, there were about as many local infections with the virus in Europe as were brought in by travelers from abroad.
The EU only closed the borders on March 17th.
The researchers had traced the spread of the pathogen using sequenced virus genomes.
"If you closed the borders with the aim of not letting the virus in: it was too late for that," said Stadler.
In the event of an infection, as was already the case on March 8, a border closure would only make sense in connection with a drastic restriction of contacts in the country.
Then the reduction in contacts from abroad will help to slow down the spread.
The study appears in the specialist journal »PNAS«, so it has already been checked by other experts in the so-called peer review and found to be good.
In the corona crisis, due to the high time pressure, reports are often also made about studies that have not yet been tested in this way.
Stadler and colleagues examined the spread of Sars-CoV-2 in Europe based on the virus genotype of samples from 19 European countries and the province of Hubei in China.
The viruses carry information in their genome similar to a fingerprint, which enables analysis of the spread.
The early isolation of China would have been central
From the processing, conclusions could be drawn for a possible new pandemic, said Stadler.
“If the dangers of the pandemic had been recognized earlier, the source of infection would have had to be dried out.
From an epidemiological point of view, an early foreclosure of the starting point of the pandemic in the Chinese province of Hubei would have been central, "said the researcher.
“It is extremely important to act quickly in the beginning to prevent a virus from circulating globally.
But in retrospect you always know more. "
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In Germany, the first known chain of infection - after the infection of employees of the Webasto company in Upper Bavaria from a Chinese colleague - was interrupted at the end of January.
This line is said to have expired and ended completely.
But more infections were brought to Germany, from China and Italy, where the first major outbreak occurred in Europe.
In Italy, the local infections began around mid-February.
"Local circulation in Germany began at the end of February," said Stadler.
The virus variant, which was rampant in Europe until late spring, likely spread largely from Hubei through Italy.
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sep / dpa