About a fifth of the 107 Italian provinces show an upward trend in the number of new cases per day (incidence) of SarsCov-2 positives in the last three weeks.
This is what emerges from the analysis of the curves relating to the number of new positives recorded every day at the provincial level carried out by mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the 'Mauro Picone' Institute for Calculation Applications of the National Research Council (Cnr-Iac).
From the analysis that Ansa reports, a heterogeneous map emerges, in which the provinces showing a percentage increase per week in the incidence greater than or equal to 20% belong to a block of regions in the central-southern part of the country and in Lombardy.
There are few exceptions that stand out far above the average, such as Pistoia and Bergamo.
"The results of this analysis, alongside the data coming from the medical field relating to the presence of the new variants, with high diffusivity, in some of the provinces analyzed, suggest that it would be appropriate to minimize the flows of people entering and above all leaving these provinces, also introducing appropriate restrictive measures to reduce mobility also within them ", Sebastiani observes.
Some provinces of Emilia Romagna, such as Bologna and Parma, also belong to the block in which the number of new cases per day increases by 20% per week, while Modena is just below the threshold.
In the Marche region, Ancona has a value of about 40%.
The situation in Tuscany is particular, where many provinces record percentage increases above the threshold.
This is the case of the provinces of Florence, Massa and Carrara, Siena, Lucca and Pisa, with the last two reaching values of around 50%, and of the province of Pistoia, which with a value of about 80% records the percentage highest in Italy,
in Umbria both the provinces of Perugia and Terni are above 20%, where at this moment, more than the incidence, are the concerns of admissions to intensive care units.
In Abruzzo, values above 20% are found in the provinces of Chieti, L'Aquila and Pescara;
the same is true of Molise with the province of Campobasso and, in Basilicata, of Potenza and Matera.
In Campania the provinces of Caserta and Salerno record a value of more than 20%, while the province of Naples is just below the threshold.
In Lombardy the province of Brescia stands at around 30%, while Bergamo records a very high value, equal to around 75%.
Finally, in Liguria, the province of Genoa is just below the threshold value of 20%.