Timo Lenzen / DER SPIEGEL
Dear readers,
Do you sometimes feel trapped in a reality version of "The Walking Dead" during the corona pandemic?
In the zombie series with its strikingly monotonous plot, the prospects are always gloomy;
either in the form of attacks of physically mutated or mentally deformed fellow human beings.
There are always phases of breathing deeply, of hope, of peace.
But viewers who have made it to the tenth season of the series have long known that these are reliably only harbingers of the next horror.
In real life, this horror hits us on the one hand in the form of mutated viruses.
Two weeks ago, due to the rapidly falling number of infections, one could still hope for easing soon.
But now the rapid spread of mutants seems to be undoing all efforts of the past few weeks.
Further horror threatens because some prime ministers want to persist in further openings despite the precarious situation.
Modeling by the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (Divi) shows what effects this could have.
She has created a prognosis model that offers gloomy prospects in the event of far-reaching easing by March 7th: According to this, the number of intensive care patients could soar to 25,000 if the vaccination campaign was relaxed too quickly and the vaccination campaign progressed slowly.
If the shutdown were extended by just 3.5 weeks, the prospects would be much better.
A relaxation three weeks later is crucial, because then the effect of the vaccinations "precedes the wave of infections".
With openings from March 7th it would be the other way around.
Speaking of vaccination: Here there is indeed well-founded hope.
Data from Israel, which is very advanced in vaccinating the population, shows the effectiveness of the Biontech vaccine against infections as well.
This is the first time that discussions about vaccination privileges are scientifically justified.
If the vaccines were only to protect against the outbreak of the disease or its severe course, vaccinated people might still be out and about as potential virus spreaders, giving them freedom, so it could be dangerous.
But if the vaccines prevent infections and thus the transmission of viruses, there is at least the prospect of a return to normal for the vaccinees.
The discussion about a corresponding EU vaccination pass (even if it will probably not be a yellow piece of paper) is good news, even if it is still unclear to what extent privileges would be attached to the certificate.
The new SPIEGEL, now digital, tomorrow at the kiosk
Of course, there is enough potential for horror in this episode of our pandemic series too.
Other vaccines might not be as effective (there are still no reliable data), further mutations make the current vaccines at least temporarily ineffective.
But maybe things are different in reality.
Then an end to the horror would finally be foreseeable.
"The exhausted country - Corona: The damage report," is the title of the new SPIEGEL. You can get the
digital
copy from now on
and from the kiosk on Saturday.
Loosen up or lockdown?
Forecast model: intensive care physicians call for lockdown by the beginning of April
The shutdown measures to be lifted too early would lead to a violent third wave of Covid-19 in the intensive care units, warn experts.
There is therefore hardly any room for quick loosening.
Paper for federal-state summit: Baden-Württemberg wants to enable openings with rapid tests
Can there be easing soon despite an impending third wave of corona infections?
With the massive use of rapid tests, Baden-Württemberg now wants to "bring back some freedom".
Before the next Corona summit: And the easing lure forever
The third Corona wave is rolling, but the shutdown is exhausting the people and politics.
Chancellor and Prime Minister are in a tight spot: How do they get out of there?
A SPIEGEL team is looking for answers.
Analysis of mobility data: the incidence value of 35 is unrealistic for the time being.
Next week, the federal and state governments will again discuss the corona measures.
Researchers are already warning that the seven-day incidence of 35 set as the target value cannot be achieved in many places.
RKI boss Lothar Wieler: "We are currently seeing clear
signs of
a trend reversal."
The vaccination campaigns are showing the first effects, the number of infections among the very old is falling.
Nevertheless, RKI boss Lothar Wieler warns: Especially among young people, the number of infections is increasing, there is a threat of a third wave.
Before federal-state consultations: Söder warns of “flying blind” in the event of easing.
While the federal states are preparing step-by-step plans, Bavaria's Prime Minister continues to be careful: a general “opening rush” does not help anyone.
In the future, Söder wants to give vaccinated people advantages.
Corona situation in Flensburg and Emden: municipalities fight against B.1.1.7 - with varying degrees of success
Two cities on the coast, Emden and Flensburg, and both are taking action against the British mutant B.1.1.7.
One succeeds, the other has a hard time.
How can this be explained - and what can be learned from it?
How the world has changed within a year:
"Alta, the mutants are here"
Mario Wagner / DER SPIEGEL
If you have any questions about the AstraZeneca vaccine
Scottish study: 94 percent fewer hospital stays after a dose of AstraZeneca
The corona vaccines approved to date are effective: A study from Scotland shows that the risk of hospital stays drops sharply after the first dose - even more so with AstraZeneca than with Biontech.
Lack of math skills: "Many medical professionals do not even understand basic statistics"
The rejection of the AstraZeneca vaccine is widespread, even among doctors - the data speak for the vaccine.
Education researcher Gigerenzer has been warning for years that many medical professionals understand too little about numbers.
Covid-19 in worldwide numbers
Confirmed Cases: 113,049,065
Deaths: 2,509,448
Recovered from the disease: 63,793,201
Germany: 2,424,684 confirmed cases, 69,219 deaths
Sources: CSSE / Johns Hopkins University, as of February 26, 2021, 11:22 a.m.
Robert Koch Institute, as of February 26, 2021, 7.44 a.m.
Research news
Pandemic project »Risklayer«: Why a dozen data nerds deliver fresher infection numbers than the RKI
health authorities and the Robert Koch Institute are struggling with software problems and reports
arriving
late.
It would be as simple as a disaster researcher and his project »Risklayer« show.
Study data from Israel: Biontech vaccine stops virus transmission to 89.4 percent
Surprising ray of hope in the fight against Corona: The Biontech vaccine not only works against the disease, but also prevents infection.
What that means for the course of the pandemic.
FFP2 masks in the test: "We can only recommend one single mask without reservation"
FFP2 masks are intended to protect against infection with corona.
Medical masks like this are mandatory on public transport and when shopping.
The physicist Axel Neisser from Stiftung Warentest is not convinced of the quality.
Covid-19: New Corona mutation in New York worries science
A new Corona variant has been spreading in New York since November.
It has worrying parallels with the variant first discovered in South Africa.
Pandemic: Vaccines can be quickly adapted to
new coronavirus
variants
New coronavirus variants have the potential to reduce the effectiveness of the available vaccines.
Manufacturers and licensing authorities are still certain that they can react quickly.
What else was important
Newly approved products: What good are the rapid tests from the supermarket?
Austria as an example: In Germany, the first three corona rapid tests are approved for lay people.
How they are checked - and what users have to consider.
Doctors warn of consequential damage: "Young people also have a considerable risk of› long covid ‹."
With some corona infected people, the disease only really starts when it appears to be over.
The Swedish general practitioner Lisa Norén is concerned herself and explains.
Heinsberg one year later: The first German corona hotspot
In spring 2020, all of Germany looked at Heinsberg: The first major corona outbreak in this country was discovered in the district.
How does it look there today?
Vaccination
skeptic in intensive care unit: "I'm learning to breathe"
You refused a vaccination and didn't believe the warnings, says a geriatric nurse.
Now she is seriously ill with Covid - and regrets her mistake.
Have a nice weekend
Yours Michail Hengstenberg
What you need to know about the virus
We have put together all the answers to the most important questions about the coronavirus for you here.
You can find more current developments at SPIEGEL.de.