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Thorsten Lehr in front of a corona simulation: "I'm afraid that has to do with lockdown fatigue"
Photo:
Iris Maria Maurer / dpa
The corona virus is spreading faster again in Germany - and the third wave that has now started could be as strong as the second.
"I am already assuming that we will get the same conditions as we did before Christmas," says Saarbrücken pharmacy professor Thorsten Lehr.
He works on the Saarland University's Covid-19 simulator, which provides a prediction model for the German federal states and districts.
Lehr reckons that seven-day incidences of around 200 could be reached again in the first half of April.
Two developments are responsible for the renewed increase:
On the one hand, the probably deadlier British mutation B.1.1.7 is spreading, which is said to be 35 percent more infectious.
"Here too, it will gain the upper hand and continue to rise up to the 90-plus range," says Lehr after analyzing the most recent figures from the simulator.
On the other hand, he has seen more contacts again since mid-February, which would have led to higher numbers.
According to the latest figures from large laboratories, the British variant has now reached a share of 30 percent; official figures from the Robert Koch Institute on this are not expected until next week.
Even without loosening, it soon returned to an incidence of 100
The so-called seven-day incidence, however, continues to rise and is now 63.8 per 100,000 inhabitants nationwide, on Friday the value was 62.6.
The health authorities reported 9762 new corona infections to the RKI within one day.
“I'm afraid this has a bit to do with lockdown fatigue.
And maybe with a restart of normal life in certain areas, ”says Lehr.
Nevertheless, there are openings in the room in front of the federal-state switch on Wednesday - apart from the hairdressers and other businesses from March 1, the prime ministers are considering further steps from March 8.
Economic pressure to ease is high.
"Even if the easing is moderate, it will have an impact"
"Even if the easing is moderate, it will have an impact," warns Lehr.
He assumes that there will be around 20 percent more contacts after March 7th.
"And then we will see that the combination of loosening with the mutant, which is then fully there, leads to a relatively strong increase." Without any loosening step, the 100 incidence would be reached at the beginning of April.
The incidence of 35 that was targeted a few weeks ago has now moved a long way off.
The effect of the vaccinations can hardly be seen at the moment.
This is due to the fact that over 95 percent of the people in the country have not yet been vaccinated.
Effects can only be seen when 30 percent of the population has been vaccinated.
"In an optimistic scenario, I would expect that we might have done that in June."
The increase in numbers could possibly be slowed down with more tests.
"Via targeted rapid tests that are used extensively to pull infectious people out of circulation," said Lehr.
But he doubts that the implementation will happen in time.
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apr / dpa