The new virus positive cases at SarsCov2 show a growth trend in 28 countries, equal to about two thirds of European countries.
France is showing a marked increase, while Italy is among the countries that have reached the peak, such as Norway and Finland, and unfortunately Spain is starting to show signs of recovery;
On the other hand, the downward trend continues in Albania, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, with the addition of Estonia and Montenegro.
This is indicated by the analysis conducted by the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the 'Mauro Picone' Institute for Calculation Applications of the National Research Council (Cnr-Iac).
Compared to the average value of the incidence in Europe, which is currently around 40 new cases per day per 100,000 inhabitants, Italy is slightly below, with 37 new cases per day per 100,000 inhabitants.
Countries that are above the European average can be included in five groups, three of which are contiguous: France (with 58 new cases per day per 100,000 inhabitants), Luxembourg (46), Belgium (45) and Netherlands (43);
the second group includes Sweden (83) and the third is Estonia (93);
the fourth Czech Republic (77) and Poland (74) and the fifth Kosovo (144), Hungary (95), Montenegro (67), Serbia (65), Bosnia (61), Macedonia (55), Bulgaria (47) and Slovenia (46).
Should Slovakia exceed the threshold, we will have only four groups, one of which extends from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
Once the descent phase is complete, the curves of Portugal and Russia continue to flatten and the curves of the United Kingdom and Latvia are now flat.
"We must instead observe the worrying change in trend in the curve of Spain which, instead of continuing to flatten after the descent, has started to grow again. Lithuania and Slovenia are also growing and weakly also Ireland, which previously were flat", observes Sebastiani.
According to the expert, the situation in France is "worrying", where the theoretical incidence of 45 cases per day per 100,000 inhabitants has increased by about 30% and where "perhaps the possibility of returning to distance learning should be reconsidered", Sebastiani observes.
Furthermore, "in light of the significantly higher values in France and Slovenia and the fact that the incidence in Austria and Switzerland is growing, it is important to control entry into Italy from these countries and to vaccinate workers who frequently cross our border with them as much as possible. States "and, he concludes," given the general situation in the European States, it would be good to minimize the tourist flows in and out of Italy ".