Enlarge image
Zeekr 001 from Geely: new competitor for Porsche Taycan and Tesla's Model S.
Photo: Geely
The Geneva Motor Show was canceled, the car show in New York was postponed and it is uncertain whether the IAA, which has been moved from Frankfurt to Munich, will take place: The car world is still paralyzed by the pandemic. In China, on the other hand, the industry has largely ticked Covid-19. In Shanghai, it is celebrating the first and perhaps only major auto show of the year with more than 1000 exhibitors - with an elaborate hygiene concept including body temperature control and Corona app.
Companies in China definitely have reason to be happy. The sales figures are rising quickly, the forecasts are rosy: Compared to the lockdown-marked previous year, the registrations in the first quarter of 2021 rose by 75 percent to around 6.5 million, reports the strategy consultancy Berylls in Munich. With a fleet of 287 million vehicles, China has also replaced the USA as the number one automotive country this year, emphasizes Ferdinand Dudenhöffer from the Center Automotive Research in Duisburg.
A significant difference remains, which promises further growth: While the US market is considered saturated with 871 cars per 1000 inhabitants, the pent-up demand in China is unbroken with 205 cars per 1000 inhabitants.
"The world's largest car market is in the process of expanding its gap to the rest of the world considerably in 2021," said Dudenhöffer.
"China is driving away from everyone else."
In view of these numbers, even German car bosses shine when they look to the east.
While China was mostly your most important sales market in recent years, its importance has grown with the early restart after the pandemic.
The fact that Daimler and BMW were able to announce record quarters in the middle of the crisis is primarily due to their customers in the People's Republic.
"China is not only the most important passenger car sales region for us, but also the world's leading market for electric cars," said Daimler's governor in Beijing, Hubertus Troska, as he unveiled two new electric vehicles.
His colleagues at Audi and BMW also presented new electric cars in Shanghai.
As the most important market, China has long been driving the electric revolution in terms of technology.
The so-called New Energy Vehicles (NEV) are the big winners of the first quarter there, according to Berryls expert Jan Burgard.
510,000 of them were sold, which corresponds to a growth of 280 percent compared to 2020 and 86 percent compared to 2019.
More competition for German luxury brands
The many new models are responsible for the run on this segment, including Model 3 and Model Y from Tesla or Hongguang's Mini EV.
Burgard is convinced that the flood of new battery models from Europe will accelerate this development.
Combined with the still good reputation of “Made in Germany”, this will boost sales, especially of the premium brands.
Volume brands would have to fight harder for each customer.
Daimler, BMW, Audi and Porsche may also be heading towards tougher times.
Strategy consultant Burgard sees plenty of headwinds in the coming years: “We are watching how competition in the Chinese market increases in all segments.
And we see a lot of new local manufacturers who are about to jump into the European market or are already establishing themselves in the first regions, such as MG, Nio or XPeng. "
The trade fair in Shanghai is a party for German car manufacturers - but also a warning.