An increase of about 70% compared to the previous week: this is the pace at which cases are growing in Italy, according to the calculations of the physicist Giorgio Parisi, of the Sapienza University of Rome and the National Institute of Nuclear Physics (Infn) .
On June 26th there was a slowdown in the descent of the epidemic curve and starting from July 1st the daily cases began to increase compared to those recorded a week earlier: "it started with 10% and gradually came to about 70%. It is clear - Parisi told ANSA - that a very strong change is taking place ".
The more than 800 cases recorded in Italy on Monday 12 July marked a 70% growth compared to those of Monday 5 July and today's more than 1,500 correspond to a similar increase compared to the data of Tuesday 6 July. "The trend we are observing in Italy - Parisi noted - is similar to that observed in Great Britain, two months late, when in the United Kingdom the number of vaccinated people was comparable with that of people vaccinated in Italy".
This consideration, continued the physicist, allows us to take a look at the future, considering that what has happened in the last two months in Great Britain could happen in Italy. "In Great Britain there was initially an increase of about 70% of cases per week, which then stabilized and which are currently slowing down by 30% per week.
Overall - Parisi said - over two months. Cases in Great Britain have increased by about 20 times and ICU admissions and deaths by four times: more or less the same thing is to be expected from us ".
However, there is hope in vaccinations, because "if Italy manages to maintain the pace of over 500,000 vaccinations a day, in a month we could reach a better situation, the one in which Great Britain is today. It is therefore very much important - he concluded - that vaccinations continue at the same pace also in July and August ".