The European disease agency predicts a strong rebound in the number of Covid-19 cases in the coming weeks, with nearly five times as many new cases by August 1 due to the Delta variant and the easing of measurements, according to its latest projections released Friday, July 16.
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In its area including the European Union as well as Norway and Iceland, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) expects an incidence of more than 420 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants for the week ending. August 1 against less than 90 last week.
For the week ending August 8, its furthest projection, the ECDC predicts further progression to more than 620 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
While these projections remain epidemiological hypotheses, this level corresponds to that observed during the peaks of autumn 2020 and April 2021, according to data from the EU agency.
Rise in contamination in most European countries
The number of hospitalizations and deaths should increase less quickly, according to the ECDC, thanks in particular to the vaccination campaign: the number of deaths linked to Covid-19 should once again exceed the bar of 10, against 6.8 last week.
Currently, the trend is upward in two-thirds of the 30 countries monitored by the agency, "
and in the most affected countries, the largest increases in cases and the highest levels of contamination are among 15-24 year olds. , with limited increases for those over 65
”.
Two countries (Spain and Portugal) are in the “
high concern
” category
and four (the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Malta and Cyprus) in “
moderate concern
”.
The 24 others are currently in low or very low concern, but the trend is also worsening.
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Last week (July 5-11), the number of new cases in the European Union jumped 60%, increasing for the second week in a row according to the ECDC due to "
the relaxation of measures and the progression of the Delta variant
Originally detected in India.
Last month, the Stockholm-based agency warned that the latter should account for 90% of new cases by the end of August.
On the vaccination side, the ECDC reports 63.4% of the population over 18 having received at least a first dose, and 47.8% being fully vaccinated at the tally dated July 11.