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Photo: Rüdiger Wölk / imago images / Rüdiger Wölk
"According to our simulations, an exponential increase in the number of hospitals will start in October," says the new report by the group led by mobility researcher Kai Nagel to the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
With a view to the incidence in Germany, the research group continues: "If the current development continues, this will start even earlier and then intensify again in October."
The team rated the increase in the seven-day incidence that was recently recorded as "worrying" because of the high relative increases.
The infection situation would worsen rapidly if the schools open after the summer vacation without protective measures and fewer outdoor activities are possible in the fall.
According to the analysis, the model results "under all currently realistic conditions, a fourth wave among adults, which will be intensified when activities are relocated indoors in autumn."
A wave of infections among adults, in turn, leads to infections among the schoolchildren.
Only if the vaccines against Delta worked significantly better than currently known will there be no fourth wave in the simulations.
Alternatively, only a vaccination rate of 95 percent would help.
According to the Robert Koch Institute, the vaccination rate is currently over 50 percent in only two federal states, in Bremen and in Saarland.
Ventilation systems and rapid tests help schools
According to the report, the simulations for schools show that ventilation systems and the widespread use of rapid and / or PCR tests could reduce the infection dynamics.
If such measures were implemented consistently, school closings or alternating lessons would not be necessary, it said.
The two rapid tests per week that are currently typical, however, are far from sufficient without additional measures.
According to the model, if the schools were opened after the summer vacation without protective measures, there would be a wave of infections among schoolchildren, which would lead to a wave in adults.
Scientists around the world are working on Covid 19 simulations using different approaches.
These are based on certain assumptions and are subject to uncertainties.
The team around Professor Nagel uses anonymized Berlin cell phone data to model the infection process.
According to him, the results can at least be transferred to other large cities.
Löw / dpa / AFP