The curve of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy has reached its peak and shows no signs of going down: this is indicated by the analysis of the weekly differences of the total positive curve and that of the percentage of positive molecular tests at national level conducted by the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the "Mauro Picone" Institute for Calculation Applications of the National Research Council (Cnr).
"The most likely cause is the increase in contacts due to summer activities starting from the last week of July," he notes.
"After reaching the peak, the curve is not going down, as it usually happens, the same phenomenon that we are observing in Italy is evident in four other European countries: Denmark, Greece, France and the United Kingdom, and the weekly difference analysis detects in the last 4-7 days signs of recovery in the first two states ". In these countries there are also high incidence values, equal to 105, 185, 175 and 220 cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants respectively ", while in Italy we are just over 70, observes the expert.
Looking at Italy, for Sebastiani "the emblematic situation is that of Lazio, heavily dependent on that of the province of Rome, where, after reaching its peak on July 26, the descent began, but for 3-4 days there have been signs of resumption of contagion ".
For this reason, he concludes, "it is necessary to pay maximum attention to the conditions at risk, avoiding gatherings and in case wearing the mask even outdoors, using the green pass in a massive and rigorous way".
The trend of the Covid 19 epidemic in Lazio starting from July 1st (source: Giovanni Sebastiani)