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Bars in Leipzig: The incidences are also increasing significantly in the eastern federal states
Photo: Jürgen Held / imago images / Jürgen Held
Around 61 percent of people in Germany are now fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and are thus reliably protected against severe courses with the Delta variant.
This is of great benefit on an individual basis.
To keep the virus in check for society as a whole, however, the quota is far from sufficient (more on this here).
The nationwide seven-day incidence has been rising again since the beginning of July.
In the western federal states, it is already above the well-known threshold of 50, in some cases even above 100, and in some cases above 200 in most cities and districts. In the east, apart from a few outliers, the picture is much more relaxed.
Yet.
"When the school holidays in all five of the new federal states are over, the number of infections will almost certainly rise significantly," warns the Federal Government's Eastern Commissioner, Marco Wanderwitz (CDU), in the newspapers of the Funke media group.
He sees the lower vaccination rate in the east as one of the reasons.
Is he right?
And what can be expected in East Germany in the coming months?
In Saxony, only 53 percent are fully vaccinated
In fact, the vaccination rate in all eastern German federal states is significantly lower than the national average, and Berlin pretty much hits the average.
The rate is lowest in Saxony.
Only about half of the population is fully immunized here.
The proportion of people who have already received a vaccination, i.e. who will soon be fully vaccinated, is still well below 60 percent.
For comparison: Bremen, the front runner, has a fully vaccinated rate of 71 percent, 76 percent have received a dose.
A high vaccination rate is crucial for autumn. Everyone who is fully vaccinated reduces the number of those who can potentially get seriously ill with Covid-19 - and thus the burden on clinics. How effectively this works can be seen, for example, in the fact that comparatively few people aged 60 and over in Germany are currently suffering from Covid-19. In the group, 83 percent are already fully vaccinated.
The vaccination rate is currently the lowest among children by far.
No vaccine has been approved for them up to the age of twelve.
The Standing Vaccination Commission (Stiko) has only been recommending a Covid-19 vaccination for adolescents between 12 and 18 years of age since mid-August.
You have only had an opportunity to vaccinate for a short time.
This applies in all federal states.
At the start of school, however, the incidences in western countries in particular have so far skyrocketed.
No clear connection with the start of school recognizable
In North Rhine-Westphalia in particular, the number of infections among children between 12 and 14 years of age rose significantly at the end of the holiday, but is now falling again. Experts suspect that those returning from vacation may have brought the coronavirus in more often, so that many infections were detected in unvaccinated children at the start of school that had taken place during the holidays. In Hamburg and Berlin, too, the numbers at the beginning of school soared.
It is noticeable that a comparatively high proportion of foreign residents live in all three western federal states (Berlin: 23 percent, Hamburg 17 percent, North Rhine-Westphalia: 15 percent). It is conceivable that many of these people returned to their home countries over the holidays and may have brought the virus with them from there. Most infections with proven origins abroad took place in Turkey, Kosovo and Croatia, according to the RKI. However, the German population was also out and about in the summer months.
The holidays in the eastern federal states of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Brandenburg have also been over for almost four weeks.
However, a significantly accelerated increase in the number of cases can hardly be seen here.
After Saxony, Brandenburg has the second lowest rate of fully vaccinated people at 56 percent.
The share of the foreign population is five percent.
The same value applies to Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
After all, 60 percent are fully vaccinated here.
Infection numbers are also increasing in the east
To what extent the start of school will stimulate the infection rate in other federal states in the east remains to be seen.
Either way, the situation there is likely to worsen over the next few weeks.
The incidences are already increasing significantly across all age groups.
Saxony, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt were among the six federal states with the highest percentage growth per week - together with Hesse, Bremen and Rhineland-Palatinate.
In Saxony-Anhalt the incidence is currently 23, but has recently increased by around half every week.
If the trend continues, the state will exceed the 50 mark in a good two weeks.
With increasing incidences, vaccination rates become more and more relevant.
The more the virus circulates, the higher the risk of infection for unvaccinated people.
So the more unvaccinated people there are, the more people will become infected each week and become seriously ill.
It is not possible to say in general what incidence is justifiable without causing problems for the clinics.
It also depends on which age groups are most affected.
Experts therefore warn against losing sight of the incidences.
The infection process arrives at the clinics with a delay.
If things get tight there, it's too late to take countermeasures.