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A dry field in the Rhein-Siegen district.
In the future, droughts could become even more frequent in Europe
Photo: Jürgen Schwarz / imago images
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, that can already be seen.
In Europe, too, the summers are expected to become even hotter in the coming years and decades, while less and less rain will fall.
A new study published in the journal Frontiers in Water shows that the continent is heading for a future with more severe to extreme droughts.
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Climate study: Droughts in Europe are more extreme than ever
"Summer drought is a highly relevant topic in Europe," said Magdalena Mittermeier from the Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich, one of the main authors of the study.
"We find a clear trend towards more, longer and more intense summer dry periods in the sense of a precipitation deficit towards the end of the century."
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), droughts are already the greatest threat to agriculture and livestock in all parts of the world.
An estimated 55 million people are affected worldwide - every year.
The key findings of the new study can be summarized as follows: The frequency and intensity of summer drought will increase in Europe.
The differences between winter and summer precipitation are increasing - in winter the amount of precipitation increases and in summer it decreases.
And there are several regions that will be particularly hard hit by droughts - four so-called »hotspots«, as the study calls it: France, the Mediterranean, the Iberian Peninsula and the Alps.
Here the frequency of extreme summer drought could increase by more than 50 percent.
The risk for Central Europe increases by 25 percent
"Our study shows that unchecked climate change will drastically increase the risk of droughts in crisis areas," said Mittermeier.
"But also in some regions in which droughts currently play a subordinate role, the future drought risk is likely to become serious" - as in the Alps.
In all of Central Europe, extreme summer droughts could become 25 percent more frequent by the year 2100.
The duration of the dry spells is also increasing.
Only in Scandinavia is no significant increase in droughts expected for the time being.
Droughts are divided into different categories according to their effects: into meteorological, hydrological - i.e. those affecting the water supply, agricultural or socio-economic droughts.
Meteorological droughts are particularly important for research because they can be possible forerunners of other types of drought.
This means, for example: If too little rain falls, farmers have less water available.
Harvests are drying up, which in turn results in falling income for farmers.
The scientists involved in the study are calling for better, more effective climate protection in order to mitigate the drastic effects of global warming.
"A consistent containment of climate change, as it was agreed in the Paris Agreement" is of great importance.
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