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Children on erosion-threatened coast in Bhola, Bangladesh
Photo: Kazi Salahuddin Razu / Getty Images
Children and young people did not have a political vote in these elections.
A new study shows that they should have a say in climate policy.
Because the consequences of global warming will hit the young in particular.
A child born today will, on average, experience much more extreme weather than an earth citizen born in 1960.
According to the forecast published in the journal Science
twice as many forest fires,
three times as many floods and crop failures,
seven times as many heat waves fall.
The international team of scientists is assuming a scenario in which the countries maintain their current strategies for reducing greenhouse gases.
Reaching the 1.5-degree target can make a huge difference, they say.
The scientists superimposed existing data on global temperature profiles and projections for extreme weather events with population data and life expectancy figures.
In doing so, they took into account different scenarios of how much the global average temperature will increase.
An example: According to the calculations, a person born in 1960 experienced an average of two to six heat waves over the course of their life. In contrast, an average of ten to 26 heat waves will occur during the lifetime of a child born in 2020 if the global temperature increase is limited to 1.5 degrees. There are 15 to 29 heat waves with an increase of 2.0 degrees - and 21 to 39 heat waves if the current climate strategies of the governments are maintained, which would amount to significantly more than two degrees globally.
There is also an increase in other extreme weather events, such as forest fires.
People younger than 40 today would lead "an unprecedented life" when it comes to droughts, heat waves, floods and crop failures, said lead author Wim Thiery of the Free University of Brussels.
The results showed a serious threat to the safety of the younger generations and suggested drastic emissions reductions.
"At its core, the climate crisis is a child rights crisis," said Inger Ashing, managing director of the aid organization Save the Children.
“We can turn things around - but we have to listen to the children and act immediately.
If the warming is limited to 1.5 degrees there is much more hope of a bright future for children who are not even born, ”she added.
The increase in extreme weather events will be particularly strong for currently young people in the Middle East and North Africa. In principle, young generations in countries with low average incomes will be more affected than in richer countries, according to the forecast. Children born in sub-Saharan Africa between 2016 and 2020 will experience five and a half to six times more extreme weather. But it will also hit Europe: Here, around four times more extreme weather events are forecast for toddlers today. Breaking the numbers down to Germany is difficult, according to the study authors. The average values are reliable if you look at them on a continental level or for very large countries.
"The good news is: We can actually take a large part of the climate load off our children's shoulders if we limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by stopping the use of fossil fuels," said co-author Katja Frieler from the Potsdam Institute for climate impact research.
Globally, this could mean 24 percent fewer extreme weather events for the younger generation than if the states stick to their current commitments to reduce emissions.
For Europe it would be a minus of 28 percent.
joe / dpa / Reuters