The cases of Covid-19 are doubling in Italy at intervals of about three weeks, with an exponential growth that proceeds slowly, at a rate comparable to that recorded between the end of September and the beginning of October 2020. physicist Giorgio Sestili, founder of the Facebook page "Coronavirus-Scientific data and analysis".
"If we look at the number of Covid cases registered in Italy every week, we observe - says Sestili - an average increase of 1.35 per day. That is to say that the cases increase on average by 1.35 every day compared to the previous seven days. . This means a daily increase of 35% of cases compared to those detected seven days earlier ". The physicist then observes that the "doubling time is about three weeks, comparable to what was recorded between September and October 2020. It is therefore underway - he notes - an exponential growth, still quite slow.
In Europe since the beginning of October the virus circulates more
The circulation of the SarsCoV2 virus has increased in Europe since the beginning of last October: it is also happening in Italy, where the epidemiological situation is among the best thanks to vaccinations.
"The increase in the circulation of the virus began in early October throughout Europe and the phenomenon is occurring in a similar way in France, where for four weeks there has been an increase in cases of 25% per week, and in Germany. , where in the same period the cases have doubled, with 95% more than a month before, "says Sestili. The circulation of the virus is also increasing in Italy, where a doubling of cases is observed every three weeks, but "at this moment in our country the epidemiological situation is among the best". Looking at the number of cases, for example, the numbers in Great Britain and Germany are "much higher", considering that in the last week there were 284,000 cases in Great Britain and 131,000 cases in Germany; closest toItaly the situation of France, where in the last week the cases have been just under 31,000. "Italy is therefore not in a more difficult situation, especially considering the lethality rate", observes Sestili.
Currently the countries where people die the most are those of Eastern Europe, where about 30% of the population has been vaccinated, Sestili continues referring to Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia. In these countries, over 100 people per million inhabitants die on average and, the physicist notes, "there is a huge difference compared to Italy, where over 75% of the population is vaccinated and the lethality is less than 5 deaths each. million inhabitants ". People die less, he continues, in all countries where the percentage of the vaccinated population is comparable to that of Italy, such as Finland, Denmark, Spain and Portugal.
"There is therefore a strong indication that the anti Covid-19 vaccines are effective because - says Sestili - having a high percentage of the vaccinated population protects us from the gravity of the new wave".
For the physicist "it is a physiological wave because the containment measures are few. Italy has, however, more than other countries, first of all the Green Pass. The point - he concludes - will be to monitor the situation of hospitalizations and understand how much, thanks to vaccines and the Green Pass, we would be able to contain this wave ".