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Steel factory in Hebei, China (archive photo): According to the Global Carbon Project report, the increase in fossil emissions this year was primarily driven by the growing use of coal in China
Photo: Kevin Frayer / Getty Images
Global CO₂ emissions in 2021 are expected to be just below the previous high of 2019. This is evident from the latest data on the “Global Carbon Budget”. The report, written by an international research team, will be presented on Thursday at the UN climate summit in Glasgow. The figures for the current year are to be understood as provisional estimates based on the data available in October. They allow a rough estimate of how much greenhouse gas mankind can still release into the atmosphere before the goals of the Paris Agreement are torn.
Compared to 2020,
carbon dioxide
emissions will increase by 4.9 percent by the end of the year in
2021
, to 36.4 billion tons of CO₂.
In the past year, emissions were 5.4 percent lower than in 2019.
Although the effects of the corona pandemic on the CO₂ budget cannot yet be fully surveyed, it is already becoming clear: The decline in greenhouse gas emissions in the past year was a short-term effect of the cuts and restrictions of the corona crisis.
Recovery from the pandemic is driving up CO₂ emissions
Study leader Pierre Friedlingstein of the Global Systems Institute in Exeter said: "The rapid rebound in emissions as economies recover from the pandemic underscores the need for immediate global action against climate change."
The scientists involved in the survey warn that if emissions from road and air traffic return to pre-pandemic levels in the coming year and coal consumption remains stable, even higher emissions in 2022 cannot be ruled out.
But at least some of the results of the report give cause for cautious optimism.
Climate scientist Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK said: “Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, great strides have been made in decarbonising global energy supplies and renewable energies are the only energy source that will continue during the pandemic has grown.
New investments and a strong climate policy must now support the green economy much more systematically and displace fossil fuels from the equation. "
In some countries, emissions are falling
The development of greenhouse gas emissions can be broken down according to the contribution of the most important emitters.
The following figures include emissions from the use of coal, petroleum, gas and cement for a selected group.
Transport and aviation are not included.
China was
responsible for 31 percent of global CO2 emissions last year.
According to the forecasts, emissions will rise 4 percent by the end of the year compared to the previous year.
The corona pandemic did not result in a decrease in CO2 emissions in China.
The current value is 5.5 percent above that of 2019 - at a total of 11.1 billion tons of CO₂.
The second largest contribution from any country comes from the
USA
: Compared to 2020, emissions increase by 7.6 percent and are thus 3.7 percent below the level of 2019. A total of 5.1 billion tons of CO₂ were caused in the United States - 14 Percent of global emissions.
The 27 states of the
EU
are expected to have emitted 2.8 billion tons of CO₂ in 2021, which corresponds to 7 percent of global emissions.
Compared to 2020, greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 7.6 percent; compared to 2019, this year's figure is 4.2 percent lower.
The carbon dioxide contribution from
India
is similarly high
: According to the projections, emissions there will increase by 12.6 percent compared to 2020 and thus 4.4 percent above the value of 2019.
India contributes a total of 2.7 billion tons of CO₂ to global emissions - also around 7 percent.
This information relates to the total contribution of a country.
Offset against the number of residents, the picture looks different:
The forecast
per capita emissions
in the field of fossil fuels for the year 2021 are the highest among the countries mentioned in the USA - on average, each person in the USA causes emissions of more than 4 tons of CO₂ per year.
The per capita emissions of the Chinese are just over 2 tons of CO₂ annually - but the trend has been rising for years.
In the EU countries, this value is slightly less than 2 tons of CO₂ per year; the global average is around one ton.
In India in 2021, each resident caused an average of around half a ton of CO₂.
The use of coal is increasing
The development of the use of fossil fuels is broken down in the report on the "Global Carbon Budget" as follows:
The emissions from the
use of coal
will be in 2021 expected to be above the levels of 2019, but below its peak of 2014. The emissions from the use of natural gas are expected to increase in 2021 over the level of of 2019.
This is a continuation of a decade-long trend according to which gas consumption is increasing.
Only the CO₂ emissions from the use of crude oil will not reach the level of 2019 in 2021.
The burning of fossil fuels is not the only factor that causes the amount of CO₂ emissions.
The
change in land use is
responsible
for a - smaller - contribution
.
This means, for example, the clearing of a forest or when the bog is drained in order to practice arable farming.
more on the subject
Electricity, meat, travel: What is saving the world worth to us? By Alexander Smoltczyk, Guido Mingels and Susanne Götze
Interview with climate researcher Gerald Haug: "It's about the habitability of the planet" An interview by Martin Knobbe and Gerald Traufetter
Does the world community still have a chance?
What do the results of the report on the CO₂ budget mean?
They show that it is not impossible that the global community can achieve the goal of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
But: It's going to be tight.
And there is no avoiding drastic cuts.
In order for humanity to have a 50 percent chance of reaching the 1.5 degree target,
420 billion tons - or 420 gigatons - of CO₂ should be emitted
.
This corresponds to eleven times the forecast emission value for this year.
For an equally likely chance of limiting global warming to 1.7 degrees, there remains a “residual budget” of 770 billion tons of CO₂ - 20 times the amount for 2021.
In order to stop the temperature rise with a 50/50 chance at 2 degrees Celsius, no more than 1,270 billion tons should be emitted.
That corresponds to 32 years with the total output of 2021.
How should eleven years be enough for the 1.5 degree target?
It is not realistic that global CO₂ emissions will drop to zero in one fell swoop in eleven years.
But with each reduction, the global community buys time - if less of the rest is used, the rest will last even longer.
The study author Friedlingstein, who works as a professor of mathematical modeling of the climate system, calculates how it can be done: “Achieving net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 means that global CO₂ emissions by
an average of 1.4 billion tons
must be
reduced each year
«.
The first year of the corona pandemic has shown that this is exactly possible.
The scientist explains: “In 2020 emissions fell by 1.9 billion tons - so in order to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, we have to reduce emissions every year by an amount that is comparable to that during Covid . "