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Delegated to Glasgow: Germany was initially not one of the signatories of many alliances
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Jeff J Mitchell / Getty Images
Since the Paris Agreement six years ago, not only have the specific consequences of the climate crisis become more publicly known - the definition of what qualifies as real climate policy has also become more ambitious.
The goal of limiting warming to well below two degrees compared to pre-industrial times has always been the main goal of the historic climate agreement; the stricter limit of a maximum of 1.5 degrees was just a declaration of intent that was negotiated into the agreement at the last minute by particularly affected states .
But the demands have long since shifted - mainly due to pressure from the climate movement: The limit of 1.5 degrees is perceived as the real goal of all climate protection efforts, especially in the West.
Keeping this “within reach” was one of the great plans of COP President Alok Sharma, who, as chief diplomat in Glasgow, mediated between the countries for two weeks.
Even after COP26 is over, it is still unclear whether this succeeded.
The UN conference can define the rules, but then each country has to implement the rules itself.
After all, the “Glasgow Climate Pact” achieved one thing: It completed the tool box for a global climate protection system.
Many of the decisions taken by Glasgow are largely non-binding
In any case, there was no plan in Glasgow for a long time to fight a decisive battle over the future of the global climate, but to finally turn to the less glamorous but important technical details of the climate agreement. But then hosts Great Britain and the climate movement turned the November meeting into a historic event.
The country plagued by Brexit wanted to shine together with the USA and the EU at this summit: With a firework of initiatives that perhaps hardly anyone will remember at the next COP. About the 100 countries that want to do more against methane emissions or the Alliance against Deforestation - nobody knows for sure whether these promises will be followed up, how they will be reported and whether they will be evaluated in addition to the goals already set. The promised commitments should "accelerate climate protection by 2030", the final report now states in a rather non-binding manner. Elsewhere, the parties are “invited” to take appropriate measures to reduce methane. The forest is not mentioned at all. It's all promisesthat run outside of the Paris Agreement - and are therefore even more non-binding.
But it turned out to be a real success: it was agreed relatively early on that the Scottish summit marked the beginning of the end of the coal.
The topic was not so present at any other UN conference - and two anti-coal alliances between the countries sent a clear signal: The days of the most harmful energy source are numbered.
And the coal phase-out also made it into the final declaration.
The fossil subsidies are also to be "reduced".
There had been resistance to this right up to the final plenary, including from India.
Germany's weak role
The situation is different with oil and gas - the two other fossil fuels that should better stay in the ground if the world wants to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. While there were 190 countries in the coal phase-out declaration, only around a dozen countries want to commit to defining a concrete phase-out of oil and gas.
As with other international alliances, Germany was also not one of the signatories. For the German delegation it was a difficult COP anyway: the negotiators - traditionally led by the Federal Environment Ministry - had to coordinate every decision with the government that was still in office and also with the traffic light coalition. A compromise on climate aid that Germany brought with it was also sharply criticized by the developing countries right up to the end. The climate conference has shown that there is still a lot to be regulated in Germany when it comes to the climate.
So what remains of the summit depends on how seriously the states meant it in the last few days when they approved the "Glasgow Climate Pact". "If the new commitments and the adopted declarations to reduce methane or stop deforestation are implemented, they actually have the potential to stabilize warming at around two degrees Celsius," believes Astrid Kiendler-Scharr, atmospheric researcher at Forschungszentrum Jülich and Chairwoman of the board of the German Climate Consortium.
"On the one hand, this is not yet satisfactory, but it is a significant step forward compared to the status immediately after the Paris Agreement - the commitments were in the range of three to four degrees Celsius." Nevertheless: A goal without a plan remains just a wish.
All countries would have to start acting immediately and make decisive progress with implementation over the next ten years.
The next summits are less about new goals and more about implementation
The climate conferences will also no longer be what they used to be from COP27 on in Egypt next year. In the future, it will not only be about new climate targets, but above all about realizing them. The next conference in November 2022 will be the first "implementation summit," my climate experts. Only with time will it become clear which promises were empty words and which were not.
The summit was therefore neither a success nor a failure. Rather, the “Glasgow Climate Pact” lays the foundation for a real turnaround in the next few decades - the countries must now build on this. From 2024, all signatories to the Paris Agreement will have to report on their emissions and progress in climate protection - that sounds technical - but it is a huge step forward. "Now we can finally all start to work," said an employee of the UN Climate Secretariat who accompanied the negotiations. Progress in climate protection can only really be measured with such a set of rules - and then corresponding political pressure can be applied.
It doesn't sell as well as a “methane initiative” or a “deforestation stop”.
But that the world will get a real climate protection system in the next few years, where emissions are not a country issue, but a problem for all people - that is the silent revolution in Glasgow.