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There is great concern about the rapid spread of Omikron: since last Sunday, eight South African countries have also been considered virus variant areas in Germany, and some countries such as Israel or Japan are closing their external borders completely.
Prof. Wolfgang Preiser, virologist at the Stellenbosch University,
“Whether it will still be possible to capture this variant before it spreads is a good question. That depends, of course, on how aggressive it is, how easily it spreads, but also how long it has been brought to other countries. "
In South Africa, the so-called variant B.1.1.529 is spreading rapidly. After a relatively quiet phase, a fourth wave is now feared, the laboratories will start up again. This is also the case with Professor Wolfgang Preiser; we can reach him in Cape Town. There he heads the Department of Medical Virology at the University of Stellenbosch.
Prof. Wolfgang Preiser, Virologist University of Stellenbosch
“The most important feature, which is also the cause of the great concern and also the reason why the WHO has classified it as a“ variant of concern ”, is the enormous number of mutations.
So we haven't seen so many mutations together before.
And among them are some that we know from other variants and that we know have negative effects.
In other words, an immune escape, i.e. an undermining of the immune response or easier transferability. "
How effective the vaccination protection against the new variant is still has to be investigated.
Prof. Wolfgang Preiser, Virologist University of Stellenbosch
»We have a nationwide system for Covid vaccination and can therefore compare new diagnoses with the vaccination status of the infected person. So it will be incredibly illuminating over the next few weeks.
But I firmly assume, and I know the colleagues on my side, that it may be a matter of reduced immune protection, but certainly not a drastic or complete reduction. The fact is that we may have to assume another 10-20 percent less protection, but it will certainly continue to be the very best to be vaccinated naturally. "
Only about 25 percent of the total population in South Africa is fully vaccinated - despite sufficient amounts of vaccine. Vaccine skepticism is widespread; only one in five young adults is vaccinated. Most Omicron cases so far fell into this age group - the course was rather mild.
Prof. Wolfgang Preiser, Virologist University of Stellenbosch
»The risk groups, i.e. the elderly or people with chronic diseases, have not yet been recorded, as far as we have seen so far. We look very closely at the numbers of hospital admissions, i.e. all of these different epidemiological parameters that are being examined here, because we suspect that South Africa is certainly ahead of the rest of the world here, are being examined very carefully and in real time. So here, too, I expect more information soon. So far: no indication that the course of the disease is more severe than with other virus variants, but also no reliable evidence that this is a milder disease. "
According to previous knowledge, Preiser assumes that the common PCR tests also detect the omicron variant well - and some may even be able to differentiate between different virus variants.
Such a quick test criterion could be very useful to provide an overview of where the new variant has already occurred.
The researcher is more skeptical about possible successor mutations: It can hardly be assumed that the virus has already exhausted its evolutionary possibilities.
Prof. Wolfgang Preiser, Virologist University of Stellenbosch
»One always hopes that it has now, so to speak, reached the top of development and now it cannot change any further.
But yes, we'll see.
What will be interesting is to see where Omikron actually comes from.
We had thought, well, Delta, Beta, the other variants, from which new variants will then emerge.
At Omikron, based on what we know so far, everything is of course preliminary, everything is still running, it looks as if it did not emerge from Delta, nor from Beta, which was what prevailed here in South Africa before Delta.
So where it comes from is not yet clear and it will certainly provide information about where we are going on the mutant and variant journey. "