It is too early to say that the cases of Covid-19 in Italy are in decline: "they have 2 opposite trends and that say different things because different people refer to the swabs" and "according to many mathematical models the peak is expected in a week": virologist Francesco Broccolo, from the University of Milan Bicocca told ANSA. "The percentage of molecular swab positives is down and from 28% on January 3 is now 16%, while that of antigen test positives shows a growing trend, from 8% of 3/1 8% to the current one. 17% ".
There are also different people who choose one type of test rather than the other: "with the new rules - observed Broccolo - moleculars are no longer made to confirm the positivity detected by the antigenic products, consequently now even those who do the quick antigenic do must get out of the disease, as well as those who must access the Green pass. Basically everyone accesses the rapid antigen tests, while those who have a suspicion of the disease and want to have a confirmation, which amounts to a small share of those who have been tested, do the molecular positive on rapid test ". The latter, he noted, "has always had a limited intrinsic sensitivity and it seems that Omicron positives may escape more due to mutations of this variant that rapid tests are not able to detect.Then there are always doubts about the sensitivity of the test and the ability to detect even a low viral load, which in the case of the Omicron seems to be no less than that of the Delta ".
The problem also arises that Omicron, capable of transmitting itself with great ease, circulates more and more freely.
"This is risky - concluded the virologist - both because the circulation of the virus could generate the appearance of new variants, and because the risk of reinfections with Omicron is 5.4 times higher than reinfections with Delta".