Past the peak of the percentage of positives to molecular tests, which now decreases, we are moving towards the peak of the total number of positives.
Meanwhile, the death curve accelerates, but the same does not happen for the entrance curve in intensive care, probably due to the different clinical manifestations of the Omicron variant: this is what the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for Calculation Applications indicate. 'M.Picone', of the National Research Council (Cnr).
The data updated as of January 16 allow to confirm and accurately localize the peak of the average value of the percentage of molecular test positives as of January 6. Analysis of weekly differences indicates that "the peak of the average number of total positives is expected within the next four days," notes the expert.
"As usually happens, there is an acceleration of the death curve, which follows with a delay, that of positives which took place in the last weeks of 2021. Strangely, a similar trend is not observed for the curve of admissions to intensive care, which at on the contrary, it seems to be holding back growth ”, Sebastiani notes. “This anomaly - he continues - could be explained by the various clinical manifestations of Omicron, presumably prevalent in Italy at the moment. The lower frequency of pneumonia in omicron would result in a lower probability of hospitalization in intensive care, without however a consequent reduction in the deaths of frail subjects, due to the higher incidence values in combination with a vaccination with only two doses ".
Here is the map of the forecast of the achievement of the average value of the positive peak at the regional level:
PEAK 5 JANUARY: Umbria
PEAK JANUARY 6: Tuscany
PEAK 10 JANUARY: Lombardy
PEAK 11 JANUARY: Abruzzo, Basilicata
AL PICCO (precise location with data for the next few days): Emilia Romagna, Lazio, Piedmont, Sicily
PEAK WITHIN 4 DAYS: Autonomous Province of Trento, Valle d'Aosta
PEAK WITHIN 7 DAYS: Friuli Venezia Giulia, Veneto
BRAKED GROWTH: Sardinia
LINEAR GROWTH: autonomous province of Bolzano, Calabria, Molise
ACCELERATED GROWTH: Campania, Liguria, Marche, Puglia