The descent of the curve of daily admissions in intensive care is showing a slowdown, as is that of deaths;
three weeks ago, moreover, the rate of decline in the percentage of positive molecular tests decreased significantly and in almost half of the provinces the descent of the incidence curve of positive cases in both types of tests is in a stasis phase, while there is a growth in those of Siena, Perugia, Agrigento and Trapani.
On the other hand, the increase in the incidence in the province of Cosenza in the last ten days is noteworthy.
This is indicated by the analysis of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Computing 'M. Picon', of the National Research Council (Cnr).
"The analysis of epidemiological data reveals that, on a national level, a slowdown in the descent of the curve of daily admissions to intensive care took place in the first week of March, the average value of which in the last seven days is equal to about 45 units", observes the expert.
"The same - he continues - has happened since the last week of February for the death curve, the average value of which in the last seven days is equal to about 200 deaths per day".
The data also indicate that "the curve of the percentage of positive molecular tests has undergone a decrease in the rate of descent since the penultimate week of February, and the current average value is equal to about 9.5%".
In the last ten days, then, "there are inconsistencies in the data of the total number of molecular test positives in some regions, such as Veneto, Valle D'Aosta and Calabria";
in particular, in some points the curve decreases.
This is the case, for example, of Veneto, where in the last seven days the total positive molecular tests went from 743,738, to 743,025, 742,728, 745,359, 808,419, 746,501, 746,559, 747,102.
Finally, the analysis at the provincial level indicates that "the positive curve for both types of tests in almost half of the provinces is in a stagnant phase, while some provinces are increasing, albeit weakly".
This is the case of two pairs of neighboring provinces: Siena, where in the last seven days the incidence has increased by about 5% compared to the previous seven days, and Perugia (8%);
Agrigento (9%) and Trapani (17%).
Finally, the province of Cosenza in the last ten days has undergone a significant increase, with the incidence value in the last seven days equal to three times that of the previous seven days.