A rapid spread of Covid-19 cases is underway throughout Italy, to the point that in two days there is a growth of at least 10% in 78 provinces instead of 43, among the 107, probably driven by the new sub- Omicron variant;
the entry curve in intensive care is holding back the descent and preparing to grow, and is also holding back the descent of the death curve.
This is indicated by the analysis of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Computing 'M. Picone', of the National Research Council (Cnr).
"The results of the analysis of the data of the SarsCov2 epidemic updated to 11 March show a rapid spread of the infection throughout the national territory", notes the expert.
“Nationally, the mean curve for the percentage of molecular test positives rises from about 9.5% eight days ago to about 11.5%.
The curve of deaths and that of daily admissions to intensive care is holding back the descent, and the analysis of the weekly differences indicates that this last curve should start growing as early as March 12 ”, continues Sebastiani.
The same trend emerges at the provincial level, from the analysis of positive test data (antigenic and molecular): "in two days the number of provinces for which the analysis of the weekly differences provides a trend of growth and in which the incidence in the last seven days is greater than that of the previous seven days ".
The provinces where the increase is at least 10% increased from 43 to 78 and the minimum increase recorded in the first 43 went from 10% to 26%.
“The great speed of diffusion, although currently not describable and quantifiable through an exponential model, and the sequencing data from Omicron up to March 9, suggest that it is a sub-variant of Omicron.
Additional sequencing data will be useful to validate or reject this hypothesis, ”notes the mathematician.
"Among the other possible causes are - he continues - the rigidity of this last part of winter and the relaxation of restrictive measures, such as the obligation to wear a mask outdoors, both for the direct effects it induces, but also for indirect ones resulting in a general relaxation, which is understandable, but which should be avoided ".
Sebastiani also notes that, "although the Omicron variant induces a milder symptomatology on average than the Delta, especially in vaccinated subjects, its great diffusivity allows fragile subjects to be reached, with the result that last week we had an average of about 190 deaths per day .
Those who want to ignore this fact, in addition to being criticized from the ethical point of view, are so from the point of view of rationality, as they do not realize the indirect effects generated by the surplus of work for health workers, both in relation to the medical aspects than to the bureaucratic ones, to the detriment of the protection and care of their own health, even if they have no direct damage from Covid ".
Below are the values of the percentage changes in the weekly incidence for the Italian provinces and the corresponding values of the incidence in the last seven days per 100,000 inhabitants :)
Catanzaro (103, 470), Sassari (81, 860), Agrigento (72, 1120), Perugia (71, 1.040), Trapani (68, 990), Grosseto (64, 910), Enna (58, 810), Viterbo (55, 520), Terni (54, 930), Cosenza (54, 720), Caltanissetta (53, 760), Ascoli Piceno (50, 930), Lecco (49, 290), Avellino (49, 630), Benevento (48, 700), Vibo Valentia (48, 1.090), Ragusa (45, 990), Crotone (45, 900), Matera (42, 840), Latina (42, 700), Frosinone (40, 670), Livorno (39, 690), Trieste (38, 500), Massa Carrara (37, 640), Caserta (36, 640), Lucca (35, 770), Ancona (34, 740), Bolzano (34, 760), Rieti (33, 700), Bari (33, 620), Aosta (33, 220), Como (32, 370), Florence (32, 430), Palermo (31, 760), Pisa (31, 530), Pordenone ( 30, 330), Piacenza (30, 250), Lecce (29, 1.120), Rome (28, 560), La Spezia (26, 460), Salerno (26, 520), Milan (26, 350), Cagliari ( 26, 570), Brindisi (25, 550),Arezzo (24, 720), Siena (23, 830), Naples (23, 430), Vercelli (22, 310), Barletta-Andria-Trani (22, 530), Catania (21, 500), Prato (21, 280), Macerata (20, 720), Messina (20, 950), Teramo (20, 620), Forlì-Cesena (20, 400), Venice (19, 670), Pesaro and Urbino (19, 470), Oristano (19, 790) Vicenza (19, 530), Nuoro (18, 270), Genoa (18, 530), Bergamo (17, 190), Alessandria (17, 390), Modena (16, 300), Udine (16 , 310), L'Aquila (16, 620), Treviso (13, 500), Savona (13, 430), Pistoia (12, 410), Potenza (12, 620), Padua (12, 600), Taranto ( 12, 540), Bologna (11, 400), Foggia (11, 600), Verbano-Cusio-Ossola (11, 410), Monza and Brianza (11, 310), Fermo (11, 80), Asti (10 , 260), Syracuse (10, 760), Pavia (9, 320), Imperia (9, 300), Brescia (8, 290), Varese (8, 320), Ferrara (8, 370), Rimini (8, 360), Verona (7, 420), Turin (7, 300),Reggio Calabria (6, 940), Pescara (6, 530), Ravenna (6, 380), Rovigo (5, 430), Mantua (5, 370), Parma (5,270), Campobasso (4, 640), Reggio Emilia (4, 320), Cuneo (4, 180), Novara (4, 220), South Sardinia (3.470), Chieti (3, 550), Trento (3, 350), Cremona (2, 320), Biella (0.220 ), Lodi (-1, 230), Gorizia (-3, 300), Isernia (-5, 500), Belluno (-7, 390), Sondrio (-8, 240),