Dear reader,
At the world climate summit in Copenhagen in 2009, small badges were distributed – they showed a clock and the letters “tcktcktck”.
Thirteen years later, it has become a truism: the time to save the planet is running out.
Our remaining carbon budget for limiting planetary warming to 1.5 degrees will be gone in nine and a half years
, according to a study published in the March issue of the journal Nature
.
In 2021 alone, we used around nine percent of this remaining budget worldwide, which is the maximum that can go into the atmosphere before the critical temperature threshold is broken.
Now every year counts, every month, even every week.
But the journey into the climate-neutral age has come to a standstill with the war in Ukraine - although at the beginning of the year it looked as if things were only just getting started.
The Russian government itself has never been a climate pioneer.
The country has low climate goals and so far has not been particularly motivated when it comes to renewables or phasing out natural gas, oil or coal.
His exclusion from the climate negotiations would be regrettable, but should change little.
But Putin's war of aggression against the Ukrainian neighbor is having a much broader impact.
The conflict has the potential to force the big players in international climate policy into a renaissance of fossil fuels - even if their governments don't actually want that.
Biden: From the climate hero to the driven by the fossil lobbies
A year ago, President Joe Biden promised to reduce his own emissions more quickly and lead his country into the post-fossil era.
Biden wanted to reverse decisions on environmental and climate laws from the Trump era, relaunch climate programs and attract investors to the energy transition.
A series of ambitious legislation aimed to impose stricter regulations on the oil and gas industry, incentivize car makers and buyers to switch to electric vehicles, and improve insulation in hundreds of thousands of American homes.
And at the UN climate summit in Glasgow in November, he even apologized for his predecessor's anti-climate policies and announced that he would increase climate aid for poorer countries.
The message was clear: the USA wants to become a climate role model for the whole world and help other countries with the energy transition and adapting to climate change.
Particularly persuasive was Biden's negotiator, John Kerry, who passionately promoted the Glasgow deal and a "decade of trade."
But these big promises are now on the brink.
Biden's efforts have been slowed down for months.
In December, Democratic US Senator Joe Manchin opposed the US President's billion-euro social and climate protection package.
His approval is crucial as Democrats have a razor-thin majority in the upper house of Congress and cannot afford a single dissent if they are to pass the bill.
At the same time, experts warn that Biden cannot achieve the climate targets by 2030 without this law.
In this already difficult situation, Biden's opponents now sense the dawn.
They are using the Ukraine war to delay the exit from fossil fuels.
Because with the announced import stop of Russian oil as well as liquid gas and coal by the US administration, the country could boost its own fossil production again.
Weeks ago, America's main oil lobby group, the American Petroleum Institute (API), called for American energy to be "unleashed" in the name of energy security.
As a reminder, the API funded disinformation campaigns by climate deniers for years.
It's the ideal -- if not the saving grace -- moment for the oil industry to scrap disruptive environmental regulations and shorten lengthy permits in the name of American patriotism.
In addition, licenses for oil drilling should be granted quickly and unbureaucratically.
Clear the way for the unrestrained exploitation of fossil resources.
Climate protection can easily be swept under the table with the patriotism arguments.
The renegade Democratic Senator Manchin also supports the fossil lobby.
At an Energy Committee hearing, he advocated issuing new oil and gas licenses and approving pipelines as soon as possible.
According to Manchin, Russia's war is an energy war.
The situation is very serious.
"In a shootout, there's no point in pulling out a knife," the senator said.
Unsurprisingly, the Republicans are now writing to President Biden to increase domestic oil and gas production.
The argument: rising energy prices and independence in terms of energy policy.
Will the next climate summit be a total failure?
Other promises made by President Biden also fall by the wayside: the US Congress approved just one billion US dollars for international climate aid this year.
That falls far short of Biden's pledge to increase aid to $11.4 billion annually by 2024.
It would take 2050 to reach that amount if it continues at this pace, analysts say.
Some climate experts even think that it should actually be up to 50 billion - if it's about a fair share of the USA in combating the climate crisis.
The aid was promised to poor countries that have no money to adapt to the consequences of climate change or cannot finance the energy transition from their own resources.
The climate aid is also seen as a test of confidence in the world climate agreement: many countries have only set targets for reducing their emissions on the condition that they receive funding from industrialized countries such as the USA.
This is all miserable news for the world climate - and also for the next UN climate conference in Egypt in a few months.
It could turn into a total failure if big players like the US pull out now.
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The topics of the week
Climate activists on the war in Ukraine: »Destruction by the fossil fuel system«
Will the climate crisis be forgotten because of the war?
Activists from "Fridays for Future", "Extinction Rebellion" and "Last Generation" report how they are repositioning themselves - and using their funds to protest against Putin.
Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir: "Eating less meat would be a contribution against Putin"
Is the world threatening to run out of wheat as a result of the war in Ukraine?
Cem Özdemir on feed for livestock in Germany and starving people in Africa.
Australia: Great Barrier Reef hit by "significant heat stress"
The Australian summer was a summer of temperature records - and an enormous burden for the largest coral reef in the world.
The water in the reef was sometimes four degrees above average.
Sustainability: The economy and labor market are obviously benefiting from climate regulations
Climate policy is expensive and primarily costs prosperity – this is the frequently expressed concern.
That's not true, the researchers at the Institute for Labor Market and Vocational Research found out.
On the contrary.
Interview on the consequences of the emission figures for 2021: "A tank discount is one of the most absurd ideas from the last 20 years"
According to new data from the Federal Environment Agency, the climate targets for 2021 were missed in several sectors, including transport.
Researcher Felix Matthes explains how energy and climate crisis policy can be brought together.
Reconstruction aid: G20 countries miss opportunity for "green recovery" after the pandemic
According to a new study, the most important industrialized countries spend only a fraction of the money for reconstruction after the pandemic on sustainable projects.
Several billions flowed into climate-damaging sectors of the economy.
Mobility money as an alternative: the better fuel price brake
A mobility money for everyone is the better commuter flat rate - experts agree.
In the fuel price crisis, the federal government still races past this opportunity.
Does the model now have a chance?
Climate study: Europe's permafrost is inevitably thawing
Has the next tipping point for the global climate already been passed?
According to a new study, the thawing of the methane-rich permafrost in northern Europe can no longer be prevented, even in the best-case scenario.
»Climate Report« podcast: Where the climate impacts are already extreme
The climate crisis is unevenly distributed: some countries are already much more severely affected by global warming than others.
How do people react there – and what can we learn from it?
stay confident
Yours, Susanne Götze