Signs of slowing of growth in the curve of admissions in ordinary wards, which could reach a peak within 15 days, while the peak of admissions in intensive care units is expected during the week.
This is indicated by the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for Calculus Applications 'M. Picon', of the National Research Council (Cnr).
As regards the percentage of positive cases in molecular tests, at national level there is a phase of decrease after the peak, while in the regions different situations are observed: the great majority has exceeded the peak, but in the autonomous province of Bolzano the face of growth is holding back and is close to peak;
after the growth, a phase of stasis is observed in Lazio, Umbria and Veneto;
after the peak,
As regards the employment of ordinary departments, Sebastiani's analyzes indicate that “at the national level there is a slowed growth with fluctuations” and that “the peak is expected within two weeks”.
The situation is different in the regions: in the vast majority we are in a phase of decline or stagnation, but in Emilia Romagna there are initial signs of a slowdown in growth, in Friuli Venezia Giulia after a phase of arrest in growth, in the last three days there is a new increase;
in Lazio, Piedmont and Liguria the growth is still linear but fortunately for about ten days the average daily increase has decreased;
linear growth is observed in Sardinia and the average daily increase has decreased for about 20 days;
in Valle d'Aosta the growth is linear and for about 15 days there has been an increase in
As regards the employment of intensive care units, at national level the mathematician's analyzes reveal a “slowed growth with fluctuations” and the “peak is expected within a week”.
In the regions: in the great majority we are in a phase of decline or stagnation, but in Basilicata, after a period of stasis, in the last five days there is a new growth trend;
in the autonomous province of Bolzano for two weeks there has been a fluctuating growth;
very weak growth has continued unaltered for a month in Lombardy and Piedmont.
Here are the data on the percentage of current employment of ordinary departments in the regions: Umbria (44), Valle d'Aosta (36), Calabria (34), Liguria (28), Sicily (27), Friuli Venezia Giulia (25) , Basilicata (24), Abruzzo (21), autonomous province of Bolzano and Emilia Romagna (20), Marche (19), Puglia (18), Campania, Lazio and autonomous province of Trento (17), Lombardy (15), Tuscany (14), Veneto (13), Molise and Sardinia (11), Piedmont (9).