Global warming is likely to reach 2.6°C by the end of the century in view of current commitments to combat greenhouse gas emissions, the UN warned Thursday, October 27 in a new report to few days of COP27.
Carbon neutrality targets “
are worth nothing
” without actions to honor them, insisted the UN secretary general, stressing that the world “
can no longer afford to greenwash
”.
“
We need climate action on all fronts and we need it now
,” Antonio Guterres said on the occasion of the publication of the UN Environment annual assessment of the commitments of the signatories of the agreement from Paris.
But the States are not even keeping their commitments yet, and the current trajectory leads the Earth towards a warming of 2.8°C, according to the report of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
“Divergence”
Both trajectories are well above the objectives of the Paris agreement, i.e. to contain global warming “
significantly below
” 2°C and if possible to 1.5%.
To hold 1.5°C, it would be necessary to reduce emissions by 45% compared to current levels, recalls the report.
However, the latest country commitments (“
Nationally Determined Contributions
” or NDCs) would reduce emissions by 5% by 2030 compared to now for unconditional commitments, and by 10% for those made under financing conditions. or external actions, calculates the ratio.
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Translated into warming, unconditional NDCs “
give a 66% chance of limiting warming to around 2.6°C by the end of the century
”.
Conditional NDCs give a slightly better result, limited to +2.4°C, but well above the objectives of the 2015 Paris agreement. Taking into account the “
carbon neutrality
” commitments that countries have recently multiplied, the increase could even be contained to 1.8°C, returning to the nails of Paris.
But "
this scenario is currently not credible
" immediately tempers the report, pointing to the "
differences
" between the promises already made and the results obtained.
“Terribly insufficient”
Last year, at COP26 in Glasgow, countries signed a “
pact
” calling on them to strengthen their NDCs each year.
But the response was "
woefully insufficient
" regrets the report.
Only 24 countries have stuck to it since Glasgow, and these new commitments would only help lower emissions in 2030 by an additional percentage point, according to UNEP calculations.
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Global emissions had fallen by 7% - the annual level estimated to meet the 1.5°C limit - in 2020, compared to 2019, due to the Covid-19 crisis which had put much of the global business at a standstill.
But the rebound recorded in 2021 could make this year a historic record in terms of emissions, notes UNEP.
“
There is a full post-Covid rebound.
It's a failure to use this unprecedented funding to accelerate a green transition, it's a failure,
” Anne Olhoff, lead author of the report, told AFP.