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Destroyed tank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Photo: Gleb Garanich / REUTERS
When the Soviet Union attacked Finland almost exactly 83 years ago, Stalin's generals had planned a quick victory.
After all, the Finnish armed forces were inferior to the Red Army in all respects: Helsinki's army lost out both in terms of the number of soldiers and when comparing weapons.
But the battle in wintry Finland, fought from 1939 to 1940 at temperatures well below minus 30 degrees Celsius, was more of a challenge for the Russian soldiers than expected.
The snow made the terrain difficult for the Soviet army to pass through, while Finland's soldiers were on skis or snowshoes.
Such equipment was either scarcely available among the Red Army or they could not use it.
The situation was similar when it came to clothing: while the Finns in white snow camouflage repeatedly and successfully laid mines and booby traps and used snipers, the Russians didn't even have enough warm winter clothing.
These factors resulted in significant casualties for the Soviet Army early in the war.
Only after a reorganization of the armed forces could they demonstrate their superiority and achieve victory.
There are indications that the Russian soldiers in the conflict with Ukraine could experience a disaster similar to that at the beginning of the Winter War in the coming months.
Recently, photos circulated on Twitter that are said to show Russian soldiers near Bakhmut.
They huddle in a pit when a Ukrainian drone drops a grenade, hitting the position.
But instead of jumping out of the pit in panic to save themselves, the men hardly react to the impact - almost as if they hadn't even noticed the explosion.
Only a few soldiers move with almost lethargic slowness in the immediate vicinity after the impact.
What exactly happened there can hardly be explained.
But a journalist who covered the incident is convinced the men were suffering from severe hypothermia, known as hypothermia.
In an advanced stage, the symptoms at least match the behavior of the soldiers: After the body temperature has dropped, the person stops shaking at some point, and clouding of consciousness sets in.
The body reflexes only work with a delay.
In the east of Ukraine, temperatures are currently dropping, in some cases they are already below freezing during the day.
They are likely to fall even further in the coming weeks.
This has consequences for the war planning of both parties.
No standstill in war
First the "Rasputiza", the dreaded mud season, hit the Ukraine.
Away from paved roads, the softened soils ensure that the war slows down.
Heavy equipment, especially wheeled vehicles and artillery pieces, struggles or gets stuck in the mud.
Large maneuvers on the front line are not to be expected at this time.
But when the ground is frozen through in a few weeks at the latest, tanks and rocket launchers can advance faster again.
But the soldiers are affected by the sub-zero temperatures.
The cold can not only endanger your health, but also limit your performance and reduce motivation.
Their personal equipment must be adapted accordingly so that they can cope with all climatic conditions.
Details can be crucial.
The Austrian army, for example, will introduce a new combat boot from 2024.
In contrast to the summer shoe »Einser-Bock«, the »Zweier-Bock«, as it is called, should also be suitable for difficult terrain and winter use.
The British Army has also paid increased attention to the subject of footwear.
After years of wearing bad boots, military analyst and former British officer Nicholas Drummond wrote on Twitter that they are one of the few armies to issue decent shoes.
"Wet feet are a one-way street to incapacitation," says the expert.
The military relies on similar textile concepts as the outdoor industry.
The key is in combining the right layers of clothing.
Systems consisting of three layers are usually used: the soldiers wear a base layer on their skin that absorbs moisture – for example made of merino wool.
The middle layer of clothing traps the warm air on the body and keeps you warm - down or polyester fleece are used.
The outer layer serves as protection against the weather.
So-called hard shells made of breathable and waterproof fabrics protect against rain, wind or snow.
If it's not raining, you can also wear soft shells that are breathable, windproof but only water-repellent.
“A breathable, waterproof topsheet that keeps the soldier dry also keeps them battle-ready,” says Drummond.
Onion principle for winter combat
The US military has developed various clothing lines, for example the
Extended Cold Weather Clothing System
(ECWCS) is used for cold winter days.
The third generation was first used in Afghanistan in 2007 and is designed to withstand temperatures below minus 50 degrees Celsius.
This includes gloves and warm hats.
The mountain infantry brigade of the Bundeswehr, which practiced combat operations in extremely cold conditions in the Arctic Circle in Norway, also relies on the layering principle and three layers of merino wool, down and waterproof, breathable functional clothing.
In comparison to civilian applications, however, other points are also important for military clothing: In addition to the appropriate camouflage patterns and colors, the fibers must be as quiet as possible when the soldiers move, so that they are not spotted by the enemy.
For this purpose, protection against hazardous substances, such as chemical and biological hazardous substances, must be guaranteed for some operations.
A well-known manufacturer of breathable functional fabrics has developed a fiber called Chempak that aims to meet such requirements.
Heat and fireproof clothing is also important.
For this, the US military uses
Free
(Flame Resistant Environmental Ensemble), a layered clothing system that includes a parka for cold and wet weather.
Military experts assume that the soldiers of Ukraine have an advantage in clothing compared to the Russian armed forces.
With supplies from the west, they are better equipped.
For example, the NATO states deliver warm clothing, winter boots and tents.
Allianz is providing 40 million euros for this.
Canada is also supplying $15 million worth of winter clothing, including 400,000 winter parkas, trousers, boots and gloves from Canadian companies.
A fundraising campaign from Estonia is even collecting money for winter clothing for Ukrainian soldiers.
Cost for a set from underwear to winter jacket, neck warmer and snow camouflage suit: around 400 euros.
Russia, on the other hand, has failed to issue a good basic set of uniforms and equipment, Drummond said.
“The newly drafted conscripts will be cold, wet, miserable and hungry.
The last thing they want to do is fight,” said the expert.
Military expert Thomas C. Theiner, a former member of the Italian armed forces, takes a similar view.
He believes that up to 100,000 Russian soldiers could not survive the Winter War.
In addition to the lack of winter clothing, Russian logistics, which have repeatedly been disrupted by Ukrainian artillery strikes, could also be the deciding factor.
If neither warm food and drinks, nor heating material or sleeping bags can be brought to the front, many soldiers are at risk of dying from cold in the trenches.
Bivouac bags at the front
Overnight stays in the field are also more important in winter.
In frozen ground neither trenches for combat nor so-called disposal space away from the battlefield where the soldiers live and sleep can be dug.
You may have to spend the night on the ground in the snow under the open sky.
Many positions are already full of water and unusable.
For these missions in the open air, you not only need good tents, but also appropriate bivouac or sleeping bags.
The US military relies on modular systems - similar to clothing.
But whether the Russian recruits are sufficiently provided with such hibernation materials is questionable.
Open fireplaces as heat sources are ruled out.
With this, the Ukrainians could easily discover Russian positions.
Jack Watling, an expert on land warfare at the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), also sees the Ukrainians at an advantage this winter.
Integrating new recruits in the cold and wet conditions requires very good military leadership, Watling tweeted.
On the one hand, the soldiers have to be very disciplined to keep themselves dry and warm.
In addition, the officers and higher ranks would have to sort out shivering soldiers quickly and send them to hubs where they would be warmed up and given dry clothes because there are electricity and heat sources there.
"It's crucial that supervisors keep a close eye on their people and pull them back if someone gets cold and wet," says the expert.
However, the lower management ranks of the Russians are severely depleted.
The newly mobilized soldiers do not have the experience and skills to operate in the field for long periods of time, nor do they have the material equipment.
Ukrainian troops, on the other hand, are generally well-dressed and their defense lines keep them clean, dry and warm, Watling said.
"The Ukrainian military also has a decent lower echelon - people look out for each other."
Watling also assumes that the Russians will suffer losses as a result of the winter.
Because the Ukrainians can attack junctions with their western artillery.
In addition, the dependence of the Russians on these hubs prevents a high degree of mobility of Putin's troops.
When it comes to artillery fire in winter, another factor drives up the number of casualties: deciduous trees shed their leaves, giving soldiers less cover in the forest and making them easier to spot.
And: The projectiles are more effective on frozen ground than on soft ones.
Because when detonated, some of the fragments usually dig into the loose earth or mud.
Hard ice bottoms don't, they bounce and hit more targets on the surface.